There will be nearly six times as many hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle models available to drivers by the year 2027 as there are now, an automotive group is predicting. However, it also expects that these models will account for only a tiny fraction of overall vehicle production by that point.

IHS Automotive, part of the information and analytical group IHS Inc., says production of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles should increase steadily in upcoming years. It suggests that production will exceed 10,000 vehicles in 2021, and that more than 70,000 will be produced in 2027.

"Recently there has been an increasing focus on battery electric vehicles and battery technology, but FCEVs could also play a key role in zero-carbon mobility," said Ben Scott, a senior analyst with IHS Automotive. "We are now in the third wave of FCEVs from [original equipment manufacturers] and more hydrogen refueling infrastructure is beginning to be rolled out. This could be a 'now or never' situation for FCEVs in mass market mobility."

The report says hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles are more similar to a conventional vehicle than battery electric models. Like conventional vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles can be refueled quickly and have a long range. By contrast, current battery electric vehicle models often require long recharging times and often cannot travel as far on a single charge as a conventional vehicle can go on a tank of gas.

Improvements to battery technology are gradually making it more competitive with conventional gasoline-powered vehicles. The cost per kilowatt hour is falling, and models with longer ranges are being released. IHS Automotive says the gap between battery electric performance and conventional vehicle performance presents a window of opportunity for hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles to be a more prevalent possibility for zero-carbon vehicle options.

There are currently three hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle options available to purchase or lease: the Toyota Mirai, the Hyundai ix35/Tucson, and the Honda Clarity. IHS Automotive says all three models are only available in select markets.

Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles also come at a high cost. The Mirai has a retail price of $57,500, although it comes with three years of complimentary fuel. Both the Mirai and the Tucson lease for $499 a month.

IHS Automotive predicts that 17 additional hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles will be made available over the course of the next 11 years. It believes that production will be concentrated in Japan and Korea at the outset, but shift to Europe by 2021.

Despite the uptick in expected production, the report suggests that hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles will remain a small part of the overall market. The forecast says these vehicles will account for only 0.1 percent of all automobiles produced in 2027.

Infrastructure is one limitation to the appeal of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. IHS Automotive says there are less than 200 refueling stations available in the world, and that manufacturers are currently looking at places to establish these sites. Recharging stations for battery electric vehicles are currently less expensive and take up less room than hydrogen refueling stations.

While hydrogen electric fuel cell vehicles produce only water vapor as exhaust, the report says about 96 percent of the hydrogen used for refueling comes from sources such as coal, liquid hydrocarbons, and natural gas. Moving toward a zero-carbon goal would require hydrogen to be harvested using an electrolyzer and electricity produced from renewable energy sources. This, in turn, could result in a higher cost for hydrogen fuel.

"There is no market today to justify that premium, and that market needs to be created to encourage investment in upstream hydrogen production capability," said Scott. "There is currently a tradeoff between hydrogen carbon footprint and cost."

The report says another effect of increased production of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles would be increased demand for platinum. This material is used as a catalyst in fuel cells.

"In current generation FCEVs, the amount of platinum used is five to six times that of a diesel catalytic converter, but the aim is to reduce the amount of platinum used when fully commercialized and there is R&D into non-noble metal catalysts," said Scott.