Drivers are feeling a little more pain at the pump, as gas prices have been notably higher than in recent years. However, two recent analyses suggest that fuel prices aren't yet impacting Americans' travel plans or vehicle purchase decisions.

AAA found that while gas prices are taking a bigger bite out of the average household's budget, they would not impact a family vacation unless they reached a significantly higher point. The automotive site Edmunds found that short-term spikes in gas prices have little effect on what vehicle a driver decides to purchase, while shifts in vehicle preferences do not occur until gas prices have been at a higher level for a sustained amount of time.

Travel

In a comparison of gas prices, AAA found that the average driver was spending $69 more per month in June 2018 than in June 2017. The organization also determined that gasoline ate up 7 percent of the average American's budget, up 1.5 percent from the previous year.

Earlier this year, AAA conducted a survey to see what impact higher gas prices might have on Americans' travel plans. One-third of the respondents said they would change their plans if prices hit $3 a gallon, while 47 percent said $3.50 would cause them to reevaluate their plans.

"Motorists can expect to spend at least $250 more on gas this season, but that won't stop them from traveling," said Jeanette Casselano, spokesperson for AAA. "Summer is synonymous with road trips and vacation, and we are not going to see Americans giving up this pastime this year. The higher gas prices may just encourage travelers to shorten their driving distance. While others may pinch pennies by eating out less or finding more free family fun activities while on vacation."

The national average for a gallon of gas on June 11 was $2.92. However, there was a wide variation in prices across the nation. One in four gas stations in the United States was selling fuel for more than $3 a gallon at the time of the AAA report, up from just 5 percent in June 2017.

Eighty-two percent of gas stations in Connecticut had posted fuel prices above $3 a gallon, along with one-third of the stations in Rhode Island. In June 2017, no gas stations in either state had prices about $3 a gallon.

In four states—Alaska, California, Hawaii, and Washington—every gas station was selling fuel for more than $3 a gallon. Conversely, every gas station in eight states had fuel available for less than $3 a gallon. In another seven states, just 1 percent of stations had prices above $3 a gallon.

AAA is anticipating that the national average price for a gallon of fuel will range from $2.85 to $3.05 during the summer. The organization says a number of unpredictable factors could also increase or decrease prices, including domestic exports of gasoline, consumer demand, whether OPEC increases production, and the potential impact of summer hurricanes on Gulf Coast production.

Vehicle purchases

Edmunds looked at what effect rising fuel costs might have on the automotive market. In particular, the analysis sought to determine whether buyers would be more averse to larger and less efficient vehicles, and what point gas prices would have to reach before they impacted a buyer's decisions.

The report included a comparison of the economic factors of the second half of 2008 to the first half of 2018. These included a number of positive factors, such as lower unemployment, higher median household income, a stronger stock market, and greater consumer confidence. However, there were also additional financial stressors such as higher costs for housing and vehicles.

Edmunds determined that the average gas price for the second half of 2008 was $3.13, while the average price was $2.95 in the first half of 2018. The average SUV in the second half of 2008 was 16 percent less efficient than the average car. While the efficiency of a typical SUV improved to 23.4 miles per gallon in the first half of 2018, the efficiency gap with cars widened to 24 percent as the average car achieved a fuel economy of 30.8 miles per gallon.

SUVs accounted for just 23 percent of auto sales in the summer of 2008, when gas prices peaked above $4 a gallon. Today, sales of trucks and SUVs have picked up following a multiyear stabilization of gas prices.

As part of its analysis, Edmunds also looked at online searches for gas prices to see which states demonstrated the most anxiety about gas prices. Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio were most likely to search for gas prices, despite having the second lowest average gas prices in the United States.

Edmunds analysts suggested that this anxiety might be a result of drivers in the Midwest making a more aggressive transition to trucks and SUVs. For example, 56 percent of auto sales in Michigan in the first half of 2018 were SUVs – up 49 percent from the first half of 2013.

"On the surface it may seem as though rising gas prices could be the catalyst to flip the market from SUVs back to passenger cars, like we saw in 2008," said Jeremy Acevedo, manager of industry analysis at Edmunds. "However, we're in a much different climate than we were 10 years ago. The economic and market factors are so much stronger now that shoppers are likely to absorb these extra costs without changing their shopping habits immediately."

The report noted that incremental increases in fuel prices have a fairly minor effect on a household budget. Assuming an average distance of 1,000 miles driven per month with a vehicle getting 25 miles to the gallon, a driver would pay $20 more per month for every 50 cent increase per gallon. More efficient vehicles would see even more incremental cost increases, falling as low as an extra $10 per month per 50 cent increase in fuel costs for vehicles with a fuel economy of 50 miles per gallon.

However, such price increases would also be more likely to influence a driver's vehicle shopping decisions. Edmunds analysts estimated that buyers would still be interested in SUVs even with sustained gas prices of $3.60 a gallon, but would also start to look at smaller or more efficient options. Analysts estimated that sustained prices of $4 a gallon would cause SUV and truck sales to drop as buyers moved toward cars, green vehicles, and other fuel-sipping options.

"Acclimation to higher fuel prices and efficiency gains across the industry have helped reinforce shopper decisions to stick with relatively less fuel-efficient vehicles," said Acevedo. "However, this complacency doesn't mean that the SUV boom will last forever. While strides have been made in the last decade in SUV efficiency, this isn't the only factor in consumer purchasing decisions. When gas is cheaper, compact SUVs are a perfect substitute for cars; but when gas is expensive, they are not. The good news is that prices aren't expected to reach breaking point territory anytime soon, so it appears the automakers' bets on SUVs are safe ones – for now."