In the warped sense of time born of the Trump presidency and the pandemic pause, it seems both eons ago and only yesterday that the "Access Hollywood" story rocked the mediasphere. In fact, it was just about four years ago, on Oct. 7, 2016, that the Washington Post first published the 2005 recording of Donald Trump casually bragging about how easy it was for him to sexually assault women.

"I don't even wait," the reality-TV star told NBC host Billy Bush, suggesting he might start kissing the actress he was about to meet for the first time. It would be no big deal, since "when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything…Grab 'em by the pussy. You can do anything."

In that more innocent time, some people thought these revelations would capsize Trump's presidential ambitions. A number of top Republicans distanced themselves; members of the religious right claimed to be appalled; and his campaign seemed to teeter. But Trump and his allies dismissed it as "locker room talk" and quickly seized the opportunity to remind voters of his opponent's husband's women problems. And he rolled on to victory.

Since then, there's been one blockbuster scandal after another. The reports that his campaign had welcomed Russian interference in the election, the playing-up to authoritarian world leaders, the Ukraine "quid pro quo" that resulted in impeachment, the racist attack on four non-White congresswomen known as "The Squad," and the deadly and deceptive mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic. Now his taxes and test.

And yet, none seems to threaten Trump's substantial base — the roughly 40% of the country who continue to support him. Trump knows full well some of them will never abandon him.

In looking back at the "Access Hollywood" episode, I came across an academic study published this year by scholars from the University of Massachusetts and Brandeis University that cuts against conventional wisdom. Entitling their paper "Just Locker Room Talk?," the political scientists concluded that the revelations did make a difference, finding "consistent evidence that the release of the tape modestly, though significantly, reduced support for Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign." These effects were similar among men and women, but noticeably larger among Republicans compared with Democrats.

Trump's misdeeds do matter, and they do have a cumulative effect, which is why Republican pollster Frank Luntz has said the election is Biden's to lose, and why Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gives Trump only a 1 in 4 chance of winning reelection. Which, of course, is roughly where things stood four years ago.

Trump has his core loyalists who don't budge, no matter how many outrages the news media reveals.

But not everyone holds firm. Not endlessly.

To use the medical metaphor, when it comes to changing their minds about Trump, a lot of Americans may be resistant. But they aren't immune. The long-term effects of "Access Hollywood" — and everything that followed — are still playing out.

Margaret Sullivan is The Washington Post's media columnist.