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    Monday, April 29, 2024

    World threats appear remote, until they’re not

    Tugs from the Thames Towboat Co. guide the U.S. Navy Virginia-class attack submarine USS South Dakota (SSN 790) through a turnaround March 5, 2019, at the south yard at Electric Boat in Groton. (Sean D. Elliot/The Day)
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    In two months, Americans will observe the 22nd anniversary of the terrorist attacks of 9/11/01. That day destroyed our collective illusion that an imposing military and two oceans insulated the nation from events that happen in far-off places.

    By 2001, following the end of the Cold War, the threat posed by nuclear weapons had eased. The old Soviet Union had folded its tent and the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia were no longer on a hair trigger for fear of a first-strike attempt. There appeared to be no enemy on the horizon capable of launching a substantial attack on the homeland.

    On Sept. 10, 2001, no one could have imagined that the World Trade Center towers would fall and the Pentagon would be attacked by a suicide squad of zealots who, armed only with box cutters, were able to commandeer commercial airplanes and use them as missiles. The nation’s guard was down. Warnings signs had been missed. Airport security was inadequate. About 3,000 people died in the attacks. It forever changed how the nation viewed security. It led to an open-ended war on terror and into a needless war in Iraq.

    In 2020, a much different attack — the arrival of a highly contagious virus for which Americans had no immunity — again shook our sense of security. Whether a manmade virus, escaped from a Chinese laboratory, or due to a cross-species jump in an unsanitary open-air market in that country, we may never know. It shut down the U.S., and much of the world, and led to 1.13 million American deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

    In both cases there were warnings. Terrorists had attacked the World Trade Center eight years earlier. They hated America and Americans. Still do. And how many times had we read stories about the potential for a pandemic to one day arrive, a reprise of the Spanish Flu of 1918?

    A recent story in the New York Times provided a new warning, one that should particularly catch the attention of those of us living in this lovely, little corner of the world. And it again involves China.

    Citing industry experts and unnamed sources within U.S. intelligence agencies, the Times reported that Chinese hackers have placed disruptive computer software — known as malware — deep inside digital systems critical for controlling power grids, communications structures, and water supplies that serve military bases and their host communities. The malware is sophisticated and difficult to find and extract, the report stated.

    “The discovery of the malware has touched off a series of Situation Room meetings in the White House in recent months, as senior officials from the National Security Council, the Pentagon, the Homeland Security Department and the nation’s spy agencies attempt to understand the scope of the problem and plot a response,” wrote the Times.

    “Officials say that the initial searches for the code have focused first on areas with a high concentration of American military bases,” the story continued.

    That sounds like us, folks.

    Southeastern Connecticut is home to the Naval Submarine Base in Groton and to the Electric Boat submarine manufacturer, with its plant in Groton and offices in neighboring New London. And New London hosts the U.S. Coast Guard Academy.

    For the same reasons — a concentration of military assets — this area long lived with the grim reality during the Cold War that if the nuclear ballistic missiles ever started flying, one was likely to be headed here. Though reduced, that nuclear threat remains. The world was reminded of that when Russia’s megalomaniac leader Vladimir Putin tossed out the warning that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons in its ill-conceived, unlawful invasion of Ukraine. Any use of nuclear weapons would be insane, risking tit-for-tat escalation.

    The trade off for the possibility of becoming a target, be it of the nuclear or cyber variety, is that the military industry fuels our local economy, providing good-paying jobs. Our region plays a sizable role in providing a military defense so strong that no adversary would dare challenge us. At least that is the concept. MAD — Mutually Assured Destruction — has worked so far in avoiding the big war. As a grandparent, however, I like to dream of a world that can move past that, to a place where humanity lives together without the ever-present threat of self-inflicted doom.

    The Times article notes that U.S. security officials are of different minds about China’s motivations. A leading theory is that its behavior is tied to China’s plans to one day invade Taiwan. Chinese’s strategists may believe that causing havoc to utilities and communities serving military bases here and abroad could disrupt or discourage a U.S. military response to an attack on Taiwan.

    Of course, a cyber attack on U.S. assets could instead escalate things into a direct confrontation between the two superpowers.

    It is doubtful China will act until it sees the result of the U.S. presidential election in 2024. Donald Trump is an isolationist at heart. China could probably safely bet that under his leadership the U.S. would stand down. President Biden, on the other hand, has been hawkish about a potential response should China seek to grab Taiwan.

    It may seem alarmist to suggest that such high-stakes international games could play out here. But the facts suggest otherwise. In the meantime, we live our lives and enjoy the beauty of this place we call home, leaving it to the diplomats, the military, and our elected leaders to respond to emerging threats and to discourage China, or other potential adversaries, from heading further down a dangerous path.

    Paul Choiniere is the former editorial page editor of The Day, now retired. He can be reached at p.choiniere@yahoo.com.

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