The Lonesome Polecat: special Sundaze edition
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PARENTAL WARNING: The following was written without the magical editing powers of editor Charles X. Banning. Please be advised of potential spelling and grammatical errors.
We’d been waiting for twists and turns and surprises as things were going according to plan thus far in the #cthsfb. Too much so, in fact. Things needed to be shaken up.
HATS OFF, then, to the Abbott Tech/Immaculate UNITED for bringing much needed chaos by knocking off O’Brien Tech, 36-14.
We wrote off the UNITED after they lost to Thames River on Nov. 10, 40-22. Instead, they’ve given themselves a shot at qualifying for Class M.
ATI’s win also eliminated O’Brien Tech from the Class S playoffs and opened up the floodgates in that division.
Cromwell/Portland, Bloomfield and Woodland all (unofficially) qualified for Class S on Saturday without having to take the field.
(Remember that nothing is official until the CIAC’s football committee rubber stamps the rankings the day after the regular season ends).
Sheehan also (unofficially) qualified for Class M again via it’s 41-17 win over East Haven on Saturday afternoon. Terrence Bogan ran for 253 yards and five touchdowns for the Titans.
East Lyme, meanwhile, played spoiler by going on the road and routing Branford, 34-13, eliminating the latter from Class M contention.
Shelton quashed West Haven’s longshot Class LL bid by routing it, 42-12.
Fitch was also eliminated from Class L contention because Farmington beat CREC on Saturday night, giving Platt 10 more bonus points and making it the eighth team that the Falcons cannot catch.
Here, then, are the team’s that have (unofficially) qualified for states:
CLASS LL: Shelton (9-0), Darien (9-0); Southington (9-0); Newtown (9-0); Greenwich (9-0); and New Britain (9-1).
CLASS L: Naugatuck (9-0); Hand (9-0); Middletown (9-0); and Maloney (8-1).
CLASS M: St. Joseph (8-1); Sheehan (8-1); Berlin (9-1); Killingly (8-1); and Cheney Tech (8-2).
CLASS S: Bullard-Havens (9-0); Ansonia (9-0); Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (9-0); Cromwell/Portland (8-1); Bloomfield (8-1); and, Woodland (8-1).
Twenty-one teams in. ELEVEN more berths to be claimed.
Now, onto BRACKETOLOGY~!
GROUND RULES
1. We’re going to be wrong about a bunch of these predictions and that's cool. Surprises are (usually) FUN.
Honestly, we hope we’re wrong more than we’re right as things have been too predictable thus far.
2. We’re not going to do a deep-dive into every playoff permutation because it would make your brain ooze out of your ears.
We’re going to try to keep it simple.
3. Just because we didn’t pick your team to qualify doesn’t mean we hate you. Hell, WE DON’T EVEN KNOW YOU, MAN.
4. CIAC robotics savant Matt Fischer built the ROBOABACUS to keep YOU updated about all the playoff races. Use it.
5. This is an exhibition, not a competition. Please, no wagering.
Remember, kids — the top eight teams in each division qualify, and bonus points are the 10 points a team receives for every win by an opponent it defeated.
We've added “high” and “low” categories when listing the teams fighting for berths. They represent a team’s maximum and minimum number of potential playoff points.
The state quarterfinals (Tuesday, Nov. 27) and semifinals (Sunday, Dec. 2) are both hosted by the higher seeds. The finals are on Saturday, Dec. 8 at sites to be determined.
We’ll update this on Monday, Thanksgrabbing Eve Eve, and Thanksgrabbing Eve.
• • • •
CLASS LL
IN: No. 1 Shelton (8-0); No. 2 Darien (9-0); No. 3 Southington (9-0); No. 4 Newtown (9-0); No. 5 Greenwich (9-0); and No. 6 New Britain (9-1).
Home quarterfinals are still up for grabs.
WIN-AND-IN
6. FAIRFIELD PREP (8-1)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing at West Haven (5-3).
HIGH: 1,360
LOW: 1,160
BONUSES (50): NORTH HAVEN over Amity; NFA over New London; SHEEHAN over Lyman Hall; CHESHIRE over Southington; HARDING over Bridgeport Central.
The Jesuits can lose and still qualify as their minimum (1,160) is very close to the maximum for both New Canaan (1,180) and Staples (1,170) if both won their final game (much easier said than done). They would need a few bonuses to come through for them, and they have some favorable ones.
East Hartford cannot catch Prep.
8. NEW CANAAN (7-2)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing vs. Darien (9-0) at Boyle Stadium, Stamford.
HIGH: 1,180
LOW: 930
BONUSES (60): NORWALK over McMahon; TRUMBULL over St. Joseph; FAIRFIELD LUDLOWE over Fairfield Warde; DANBURY over Ridgefield; WESTHILL over Stamford; TRINITY CATHOLIC over Wilton.
It’s hard to envision the Rams not making states for the first time in 14 seasons, but here we are.
9. STAPLES (7-2)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing at Greenwich (9-0).
HIGH: 1,170
LOW: 930
BONUSES (50): BRIDGEPORT CENTRAL over Harding; FAIRFIELD WARDE over Fairfield Ludlowe; WILTON over Trinity Catholic; RIDGEFIELD over Danbury; STAMFORD over Westhill.
The Wreckers trailed Darien by three at halftime of their 24-0 loss to the latter (Oct. 6). They’ll need that execution and more against Greenwich.
BEAT THE ODDS
10. EAST HARTFORD (7-2)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing Eve vs. Manchester (4-5).
HIGH: 1,090
LOW: 920
BONUSES (30): GLASTONBURY over Bloomfield; SIMSBURY over Avon; NEWINGTON over Wethersfield
The Hornets have no control over whether-or-not they’ll make states, but better to need Darien and Greenwich to win then having to playing them on Thanksgrabbing.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Shelton (10-0) vs. No. 8 East Hartford (8-2); No. 2 Darien (10-0) vs. No. 7 New Britain (9-1); No. 3 Newtown (10-0) vs. No. 6 Fairfield Prep (9-1); No. 4 Greenwich (10-0) vs. No. 5 Southington (10-0).
Projecting Greenwich to edge Southington for the four seed, 1,450 to 1,440 points. That would require Greenwich to get bonuses from Ludlowe (vs. Fairfield Warde), Westhill (vs. Stamford), and Norwalk (vs. McMahon), though.
• • • •
CLASS L
IN: 1. Naugatuck (9-0); 2. Hand (9-0); 3. Middletown (8-0); 4. Maloney (8-1).
The first three teams have all clinched home quarterfinals. Maloney would, too, with a win over Platt on Thanksgrabbing.
WIN-AND-IN
5. BUNNELL (8-1)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing Eve vs. Stratford (1-8).
HIGH: 1,180
LOW: 1,030
BONUSES (40): LEDYARD over Fitch; BETHEL over Brookfield; FORAN over Law; MASUK over Newtown.
The Bulldogs could lose and still qualify because RHAM is the only team outside of the top eight that can catch them. One problem — their bonuses are AWFUL.
6. WINDSOR (7-2)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing Eve at Middletown (8-0).
HIGH: 1,250
LOW: 1,000
BONUSES (60): HARTFORD PUBLIC over Bulkeley/HMTCA/Weaver; FARMINGTON over Plainville; NFA over New London; PLATT over Maloney; E.O. SMITH over Tolland; BRISTOL CENTRAL over Bristol Eastern.
The Warriors could lose to Middletown and still back their way into states if North Haven, Platt or RHAM lost.
Wethersfield cannot catch Windsor, even though it won head-to-head this year, 21-20.
7. NORTH HAVEN (7-2)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing vs. Amity (5-4).
HIGH: 1,200
LOW: 980
BONUSES (60): WEST HAVEN over Fairfield Prep; CHESHIRE over Southington; BROOKFIELD over Bethel; FORAN over Law; MASUK over Newtown; HILLHOUSE over Wilbur Cross
North Haven could also lose and back its way into states if Windsor, Platt or RHAM lost.
Wethersfield cannot catch North Haven.
8. PLATT (7-2)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing at Maloney (8-1).
HIGH: 1,160
LOW: 950
BONUSES (30): FARMINGTON over Plainville; E.O. SMITH over Tolland; BRIDGEPORT CENTRAL over Harding.
The Panthers must beat Maloney. They cannot catch Windsor if they both lost. They could catch North Haven if they both lost, but it’s very unlikely. And it’s very unlikely RHAM would lose to Bacon Academy, thus making it the team most likely to leapfrog Platt.
REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN
9. RHAM (7-2)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing Eve vs. Bacon Academy (3-6).
HIGH: 1,080
LOW: 910
BONUSES (50): BULKELEY/HMTCA/WEAVER over Hartford Public; PLAINVILLE over Farmington; AVON over Simsbury; TOLLAND over E.O. Smith; ROCKY HILL over Cromwell/Portland
Odds are that the Sachems beat Bacon, but it needs a loss by Bunnell, Windsor, North Haven or Platt, and perhaps bonuses, too.
10. WETHERSFIELD (6-3)
NEXT: Nov. 21 at Newington (3-6).
HIGH: 970
LOW: 790
BONUSES (40): HARTFORD PUBLIC over Bulkeley/HMTCA/Weaver; NW CATHOLIC over East Catholic; E.O. SMITH over Tolland; WINDSOR over Middletown
The Eagles cannot catch the top seven ranked teams. RHAM would beat them out if it won, too.
11. GUILFORD (6-3).
Guilford plays at Hand on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Middletown (10-0) vs. No. 8 Windsor (7-3); No. 2 Hand (10-0) vs. No. 7 RHAM (8-2); No. 3 Maloney (9-1) vs. No. 6 Bunnell (9-1); No. 4 Naugatuck (9-1) vs. No. 5 North Haven (8-2).
• • • •
CLASS M
IN: 1. St. Joseph (8-1); 2. Berlin (9-1); 3. Sheehan (9-1); 4. Killingly (8-1); and, 5. Cheney Tech (8-2).
St. Joseph, Sheehan, Berlin and Killingly have clinched home quarterfinals.
St. Joseph would be the top seed with a win over Trumbull on Thanksgrabbing.
Sheehan and Berlin have the best shot at vying for the second and third seeds.
WIN-AND-IN
6. BROOKFIELD (7-2)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing vs. Bethel (1-8).
HIGH: 1,140
LOW: 980
BONUSES (50): NOTRE DAME-FFLD over Pomperaug; NEW FAIRFIELD over New Milford; STRATFORD over Bunnell; MASUK over Newtown; HILLHOUSE over Wilbur Cross
The Bobcats are in great shape.
7. EAST HAVEN (7-1)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing over Branford (5-3).
HIGH: 1,100
LOW: 900
BONUSES (50): BETHEL over Brookfield; LYMAN HALL over Sheehan; COGINCHAUG/HALE-RAY/EAST HAMPTON over North Branford; NOTRE DAME-FFLD over Pomperaug; WILBUR CROSS over Hillhouse.
The Yellowjackets have never made states.
9. WOLCOTT (6-3)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing at Holy Cross (6-3).
HIGH: 1,040
LOW: 860
BONUSES (20): SEYMOUR over Woodland; WATERBURY CAREER over Gilbert/Northwestern.
The Eagles presently have less points than Abbott Tech/Immaculate, but they’d pass the latter by with a win.
REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN
8. ABBOTT TECH/IMMACULATE (6-3)
NEXT: vs. MCW United (0-9)
HIGH: 990
LOW: 870
BONUSES (20): PRINCE TECH over Bullard-Havens; QUINEBAUG VALLEY over Thames River.
They’ll beat MCW, but it’s going to East Haven or Wolcott to lose and then beat out other teams in this grouping via bonuses. It’s very unlikely they could catch Brookfield even if it lost.
10. LAW (6-3)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing at Foran (1-8).
HIGH: 1,000
LOW: 840
BONUSES (50): LYMAN HALL over Sheehan; STRATFORD over Bunnell; CHESHIRE over Southington; BRANFORD over East Haven; GUILFORD over Hand.
The LAWMEN’s best hope is a Wolcott loss and to get enough bonuses to beat out other hopefuls (they have some pretty improbable bonuses, though). They’d also be in bidness if Branford beat East Haven.
11. ROCKVILLE (6-3)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing Eve vs. Ellington (1-8).
HIGH: 990
LOW: 860
BONUSES (20): WINDSOR LOCKS/SUFFIELD/EAST GRANBY over Stafford/East Windsor/Somers; GILBERT/NORTHWESTERN over Waterbury Career.
What was written about Law applies to the Rams, and they might be able to beat the latter on bonuses.
12. WESTON (6-3); and, 13. BRANFORD (5-4)
They’re both too far back. Especially Branford.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 St. Joseph (9-1) vs. No. 8 Wolcott (7-3); No. 2 Sheehan (9-1) vs. No. 7 East Haven (8-2); No. 3 Berlin (9-1) vs. No. 6 Brookfield (8-2); No. 4 Cheney Tech (8-2) vs. No. 5 Killingly (9-1).
• • • •
CLASS S
IN: No. 1 Bullard-Havens (9-0); No. 2 Ansonia (9-0); No. 3. Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (9-0); No. 4 Cromwell/Portland (8-1); No. 5. Bloomfield (8-1); and, No. 6. Woodland (8-1).
This division suddenly filled in.
B-H and Ansonia have clinched home quarters.
S/EW/S would get a home quarter with a win on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
Bloomfield has a higher maximum that Crom/Port (1,380 to 1.320), so if both won their final game, then the former would likely get a home quarterfinal.
WIN-AND-IN
7. HADDAM-KILLINGWORTH (8-1)
NEXT: Tuesday at Valley Regional/Old Lyme (7-1).
HIGH: 1,300
LOW: 1,100
The Cougars’ rivalry game against the WARRIORCATS is a Class S play-in.
O’Brien’s loss also gave H-K another potential way in. It could lose and still qualify if Plainfield and Seymour both lost, and Plainfield didn’t collect all its bonuses to reach 1,100 points.
8. PLAINFIELD (8-1)
NEXT: Thanksgrabbing vs. Griswold (5-4).
HIGH: 1,250
LOW: 1,080
BONUSES (20): STONINGTON vs. Westerly (R.I.); BACON ACADEMY over RHAM
It could lose and qualify IF Valley Regional/Old Lyme and Seymour both lost. There’s a remote chance that it could out-point Seymour even if the latter beat Woodland.
9. VALLEY REGIONAL/OLD LYME (7-1)
NEXT: Tuesday vs. Haddam-Killingworth (8-1).
HIGH: 127.8 average (it plays a nine-game schedule).
LOW: 107.78.
The WARRIORCATS must win as they cannot catch Plainfield even if it lost to Griswold.
11. SEYMOUR (6-3)
It lost QB Ian Sadick to a season-ending injury.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Ansonia (10-0) vs. No. 8 Haddam-Killingworth (9-1); No. 2 Bullard-Havens (10-0) vs. No. 7 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (8-1); No. 3 Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (10-0) vs. No. 6 Woodland (9-1); No. 4. Bloomfield (9-1) vs. No. 5 Cromwell/Portland (9-1).
• • • •
Thanks for reading. More soon.
Adios....
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