As Memorial Day approaches, it is the question on the mind of this region's multibillion-dollar tourism industry:

With Connecticut gas prices leaping over $4 a gallon in one week and the economy stalled, will people still travel this holiday weekend, the unofficial kickoff to the summer season?

A drop-dead gorgeous Memorial Day weekend forecast, coming on the heels of a cold, rainy spring, may have something to do with the answer.

”We're expecting to see a really huge weekend,” said Debra Salomonson, owner of Dad's Restaurant in Niantic. “People will say, 'Oh, finally!' They'll want to go do something - and that's what they'll do.”

Americans may well shop for cheaper gas, plan shorter trips and go for package deals, but with the sun angled high from Friday through Monday, the state's travel industry experts are hoping that travel will not be as anemic as some industry insiders suggest.

”A perfect storm, meaning a perfect tourism storm” is what Chris Jennings, president of the Mystic Coast & Country Travel Industry Association, is calling the weekend's favorable weather forecasts.

Various weather reports predict 70-degree weather for much of the long weekend and possible 80-degree temperatures on Monday.

The state's Commission on Culture and Tourism has $4.3 million to spend on marketing this year, which includes the slogan “Connecticut: Closer Than You Think,” and most of that marketing is focused on the summer season, said Karen Senich, executive director.

”You think about what our own residents can do within 50 miles, and it's tremendous, so we've stepped up marketing in the state. And the arrangement we made with Mother Nature,” Senich joked, “certainly helped. People still want to get away.”

A smattering of consumers reached Thursday expressed the two extremes of what the tourism industry may see over the next four days: people staying home because of gas prices or traveling in spite of them.

One area resident said in an e-mail that gas prices have “ruined” holiday plans, while Monique Allair of Uncasville, who works at Mohegan Sun, exulted over her chance to head to a cabin in Nottingham, N.H., for a few days.

”I don't get much 'down time,' and weekends like this are just what the doctor ordered!” she said.

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AAA is forecasting about 300,000 fewer travelers across the country this holiday weekend, based on a formal survey conducted by the Travel Industry Association of America, due to the high cost of gasoline, inflation and other economic concerns.

But that's a dip of less than 1 percent compared with last year at this time, and it still leaves an estimated 31.7 million individuals who will take in museums and attractions, stay in hotels or bed-and-breakfasts, or go to local lakes, parks and beaches, AAA says.

Gas station owners are much more pessimistic, though the Connecticut Gasoline Retailers Association has only surveyed members anecdotally.

Michael Fox, executive director of the association, said he'd be “shocked” if travel were off by as little as 1 percent.

”Most people are staying home,” Fox said. “The people my members are talking to, they won't be traveling.”

Fox acknowledged, however, that interstate drivers may be patronizing Connecticut gas stations less as they snag cheaper gasoline over state borders, particularly in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Dave Sugrue, chairman of Mystic Coast & Country and park manager of Ocean Beach in New London, said collaborative marketing in the region and warm weather may be more influential than skyrocketing fuel costs.

”The people I'm hearing from are still more excited that the weather will be nice than that the gas prices are high,” Sugrue said.

”I hear everybody's concern about the gas prices, but the good news is we have a few good markets close to us, New Haven, Hartford, within $20 worth of gas from here. It's not really that cost- prohibitive,” he said.

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”Cocooning,” or taking short trips close to home, may well define the extent of many people's travels, acknowledged Jennings, the Mystic Coast and Company president, because those high gas prices do not appear to be going away.

The national Travel Industry Association agreed with that assessment.

”We can expect Americans to take more in-state and in-region trips this summer,” the agency forecasts in its summer travel outlook.

In southeastern Connecticut, hotel reservations are booked solid for Saturday and Sunday, which leaves Friday and Monday for travel days, said Simon Flynn, executive director of the Connecticut Lodging Association.

”The key to southeast Connecticut is, it is a destination marketplace, and that helps,” said Flynn.

Another Second Penny Inn in Stonington and the Custom House Maritime Museum in New London have already had a good start to their season, said inn owner Sandra Wright and Museum Director Susan Tamulevich.

The number of visitors at the free museum almost doubled from last year, to 957 from 550, Tamulevich said. The museum is open this Saturday and Sunday but not on Monday.

”Traffic has been so good lately, there seems to be a little buzz,” she said. “It's a good regional mix. Some say they've come because it's so close to them rather than take a trip, because it's right on their doorstep.”

B&Bs are also doing well.

”We are totally booked for Memorial Day weekend and our bookings have been up for months over last year,” said Wright. “Every B&B I've talked to has been up at least since April. This area has a reputation for being a close, easy affordable destination.”

p.daddona@theday.com

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