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    Saturday, May 18, 2024

    Labor Day finds employment outlook bleak

    There is not much for the American labor force to celebrate on this Labor Day.

    The latest labor statistics, released Friday, showed the unemployment rate for August at 9.6 percent, slightly higher than in July. Nonfarm payroll actually dropped by 54,000, but distorting that figure was the fact 114,000 temporary census workers finished their jobs. Still, eliminating that number, the economy gained just 67,000 new private sector jobs in August.

    If that number was not anemic enough, when measured against the kind of growth the nation needs just to tread water, it is downright pathetic. Economists say the economy must add, conservatively speaking, 125,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with U.S. civilian work force population growth, never mind trying to reduce unemployment.

    And the 9.6 percent unemployment figure is deceptively rosy. The Department of Labor placed the total unemployed and under employed number for August at 16.7 percent, also a small increase from the prior month. It includes part-timers who want full-time work and those only "marginally attached" to the labor force because they have largely given up and are not counted in the official unemployment number. About 42 percent of those out of work have been jobless for 27 weeks or more. This chronic unemployment remains at historical highs.

    Don't expect any quick fixes. Keynesian economists call for a big jobs program with more stimulus money poured into the private sector to encourage hiring and with the federal government acting as the employer of last resort. Republicans, concerned about exploding deficit spending, would never support it and Democrats, facing an already tough election, have no stomach to fight for it.

    Republicans call for cutting government, but that is no magic solution either, because it would put more out of work and reduce consumer spending power. It might have long-term benefits, freeing up money in the private sector, but that's hotly debated.

    The depressed housing market is one problem that has to be solved. People stuck with mortgages worth more than the value of their homes cannot move to pursue jobs and are reluctant to spend and invest. Republicans and Democrats have to work together on policies that free these trapped homeowners.

    Also needed is training and re-education efforts to match the skills of the unemployed with new employment opportunities, but that too takes time, money and political cooperation.

    An angry electorate will likely lash out at the party in power come November, the Democrats, but it is hard to imagine a more politically divided government will find the means to address this intractable problem.

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