Gov. Ned Lamont needs to be careful not to be snookered into making a bad bet as his administration tries to negotiate a grand compromise that would allow MGM Resorts International and the two tribal casinos to co-exist in Connecticut with the resultant revenues flowing into state coffers.

“Without getting into too much detail, it’s a deal that would maintain our commitment to the tribes in our compact in a way that satisfies both parties, gets the lawyers to stand down, and we have something going on in Bridgeport as well. Let’s leave it as that,” the governor said when he met with our editorial board Tuesday.

It is hard to imagine the path to such a deal.

Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods Resort are large, established employers in the state and drive visitors here. Under their compact with the state that allows them to exclusively offer slot machines, 25 percent of the slot revenue goes to the state, about $250 million this year. Under the compact, the tribal casinos would no longer have to send slot money to the state if a competing casino is licensed.

It would seem, then, that the tribes would have to agree to allow MGM to operate a casino in Bridgeport and still keep sending slot revenues, or some portion of them, to the state. Or MGM would have to guarantee a revenue stream so large that Connecticut would no longer need to count on revenues from the tribal operations.

There just doesn’t appear to be enough betting dollars in the region to generate the money necessary to make everyone happy and for such a grand bargain to work.

A few months after opening, the MGM Springfield casino in Massachusetts is underperforming. In December, gaming expert Clyde Barrow, who studied Northeast gaming for decades as director of the Center for Policy Analysis at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, said MGM Springfield’s early results indicate it probably will generate about $250 million in gaming revenue in its first year. MGM executives told the Massachusetts gaming commission that they expected the casino to generate about $500 million a year by its third year. That's a lot of ground to make up to meet expectations. A Bridgeport casino would seemingly only make it more difficutl.

Using those lawyers Lamont wants to keep out of the room, MGM has done all it can to block construction of a casino in East Windsor that has been authorized by the legislature and would be jointly operated by the tribes. It would help keep gaming dollars and jobs in Connecticut, offsetting at least in part the hit the tribal casinos have felt from MGM Springfield. The legislation called for 25 percent of all gaming revenue from an East Windsor casino to go to the state, not just slot revenues.

MGM used its political pull to stall Department of Interior approval for the jointly operated casino, a requirement of the state legislation. MGM has flooded the State Capitol with lobbyists as it drums up support for an MGM Bridgeport casino to replace the East Windsor plans.

But is MGM serious? Or is it talking with the governor and dangling the prospects of a Bridgeport casino in front of state lawmakers from that area to buy time and delay, and potentially kill, the East Windsor casino plan?

Lamont, in our interview, recognized that possibility.

“It’s a fair concern and I can address it by saying as part of an open process (MGM is) going to have to put up a $500 million letter of credit to show us (they’re) serious,” Lamont said.

He also said he will not allow the talks to drag on — “I’ll tell you more in a few weeks.” — and placed the prospects of success as “50-50.”

As for legalized sports betting, Lamont said it is coming to Connecticut in some form and will likely involve the casinos.

“We’ve got to work out the issue of the tribes and MGM (first) and sports betting is going to come after that,” Lamont said.

Our expectation is that the governor is wasting his time and he can’t afford to waste much of it. If these talks don’t progress, if any resultant deal does not come with ironclad assurances, Lamont should move on and get behind a bill to authorize construction of the East Windsor casino without Department of Interior approval.

The Day editorial board meets with political, business and community leaders to formulate editorial viewpoints. It is composed of President and Publisher Timothy Dwyer, Executive Editor Izaskun E. Larraneta, Owen Poole, copy editor, and Lisa McGinley, retired deputy managing editor. The board operates independently from The Day newsroom.