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    Tuesday, April 16, 2024

    Who’s going to win an Oscar tonight?

    The Academy Awards will be handed out during a ceremony airing at 8 p.m. Sunday on ABC. Let’s break down who is likely to emerge victorious.

    Best picture

    “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “Tár,” “Top Gun: Maverick,”

    “Triangle of Sadness,” “Women Talking”

    Take a look at this list, and tell me this wasn’t a great year for movies. There are quality blockbusters — the “Avatar’ and “Top Gun” sequels, the latter of which was the most purely fun flick of 2022. “Elvis” gave us a new star in Austin Butler. “Everything Everywhere” brought the multiverse to a Best Picture race. And on it goes. Who’ll win? I’d bet on “Everything Everywhere.”

    Actor in a leading role

    Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”), Bill Nighy (“Living”)

    This is a two-man race between Butler and Fraser. I’d argue that Butler’s was the much better performance. So many actors and musicians have portrayed Elvis in some version over the years, but no one has gotten under the King’s skin the way Butler did. I wouldn’t be unhappy if Farrell snuck in and nabbed the honors instead; his work in “Banshees,” which was at various times heartrending and humorously deadpan, caps a history of some really great performances. But Butler will likely emerge victorious.

    Actress in a leading role

    Cate Blanchett (“Tár”), Ana de Armas (“Blonde”), Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”), Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”), Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

    I’m pulling for Yeoh — she held “Everything” together with her soulful acting and, when necessary, her kickass physicality. She’s got the momentum, too, but never count out Blanchett, whom the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences voters adore.

    Actor in a supporting role

    Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”), Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”), Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

    Sometimes, you get an Oscar as much for your personal history as for your performance. And, yes, Quan was wonderful in all his guises in the multiverse-spanning “Everything” (Schlemiel husband! Multiverse-hopping world-saver! Debonair showbiz type!). But the drama of his being a child star, in an “Indiana Jones” film and “Goonies,” and then experiencing a prolonged professional dry spell, only to finally get the chance to turn in an Oscar-caliber performance? That’s the stuff Hollywood dreams are made of.

    Actress in a supporting role

    Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”), Hong Chau (“The Whale”), Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

    All hail Queen Angela! And for all of us who have wanted her to win an Oscar since “What’s Love Got to Do with It,” it’ll be a cause for celebration.

    Directing

    Todd Field (“Tár”), Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Ruben Ostlund (“Triangle of Sadness”), Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

    Step on up to the podium, The Daniels. In their case, though, instead of step, they’d leap, flip and scissor-kick their way up — because that’s how their delirious artistry rolls. “Everything Everywhere” was such a directors’ showcase that the duo of Kwan and Scheinert HAS to win.

    Writing (Adapted screenplay)

    “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” “Living,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Women Talking”

    “Women Talking” made, well, women talking fascinating. But “Top Gun” could eke out a victory if voters want to acknowledge a ginormous box-office winner — a film that was not only good but also brought crowds back to the theaters in droves.

    Writing (Original screenplay)

    “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “Tár,” “Triangle of Sadness”

    A toss-up between “Banshees” and “Everything.” I’d vote for “Banshees” because of its dark Irish take on life, but “Everything” was certainly original (hotdog fingers, anyone?).

    Note: These predictions were locked in on Thursday and so don’t consider any breaking Oscars news after that.

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