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    Real Estate
    Friday, May 17, 2024

    Gap grows between homeowner estimates and appraised values

    The gap between how much a typical homeowner thought their property was worth and how much an appraiser considered it to be worth widened in February, following several months of the figures getting closer together.

    In the latest update of its Home Price Perception Index, the mortgage lender Quicken Loans found that the average appraisal was 1.99 percent lower than a homeowner's expectation. This finding comes after five consecutive months of estimates moving closer to appraised values. In January, the average appraisal was 1.8 percent below a homeowner's expectation.

    "While it is always disappointing for homeowners to learn they don't have quite the home equity they expected, the national HPPI is still within a normal range," said Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans. "In an ever-changing real estate market, home values fluctuate and these changes are most quickly realized by appraisers who are evaluating local sales every single day."

    Homeowners have typically overvalued their home in recent years, reaching a low point in early 2009 when the average appraisal was more than 8 percent below the homeowner's estimate. The typical appraisal began to exceed expectations at the end of 2013, reaching a high point of about 2 percent above the average estimate in mid-2014, but it again fell below the expected value at the start of 2015.

    Average estimates exceeded the appraised value in each of the four geographic zones identified by Quicken Loans. The Northeast had the largest difference, with the average appraisal coming in 2.1 percent below the homeowner's expectation. This was followed by the Midwest, where the typical appraisal was 1.99 percent under estimate; the South, where it was 1.76 percent below the estimate; and the West, where it was 1.42 percent below the estimate.

    The report also looks at the difference between estimates and appraisals in 27 major metropolitan areas. Homeowners in San Jose were most likely to underestimate their property's value, with the average appraisal coming in 4.35 percent above expectations. This was followed by Denver, where appraisals were 3.77 percent above the estimate on average, and San Francisco, where they were 3.17 percent higher.

    Philadelphia homeowners were most likely to overvalue their home, with the average appraisal falling 3.71 percent below expectations. Average appraisals were 3.02 percent below the estimate in Baltimore and 2.99 percent lower in Chicago.

    Estimates were closest to the appraisal in Seattle and Miami. In the former city, appraisals were typically 0.37 percent below expectations. In the latter, the average appraisal was 0.13 percent higher than the estimate.

    In addition to the Home Price Perception Index, Quicken Loans issues a monthly update to its Home Value Index. The lender found that average home values in February were up 1.51 percent from January and 3.89 percent from February 2015.

    The Home Value Index stood at 96.97. A figure of 100 indicates that home values are the same as they were in 2005.

    Values were above the baseline only in the West, where the Home Value Index stood at 114.83. The average home value rose 2.24 percent from January and had a year-over-year increase of 5.23 percent.

    In the Northeast, the Home Value Index stood at 94.15. Typical prices were up 2.04 percent from the previous month and 0.8 percent from the previous year.

    The Midwest had the largest month-to-month gain in value, with average values growing 3.37 percent from January, as well as a 2.46 percent gain from February 2015. However, the region also had the lowest Home Value Index at 80.88.

    The South was the only region where prices were down from January, falling by an average of 0.06. However, year-over-year values were up 3.11 percent. The Home Value Index in this region was 98.19.

    "A lack of inventory continues to affect home values as eager buyers compete for a small selection of homes. This can be seen as home values jump in the Midwest right as the harsh winter hits, keeping some from listing their home," said Walters. "Home prices continue their long march back from the big price drops experienced in the financial crash. As more and more Americans gain equity, this increases the number of homeowners who are financially able to sell their home and buy another one. We're seeing the benefits of this virtuous cycle in rising home prices which is also being greatly aided by historically low mortgage rates."

    The Home Price Perception Index compares appraised values with the estimate provided by homeowners on refinance mortgage applications. The Home Value Index is based on appraisal information from new mortgage as well as refinances.

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