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    Real Estate
    Saturday, May 11, 2024

    Fannie Mae housing survey shows cooling sentiments toward selling, optimism on income

    Expectations of slower home price growth and higher mortgage rates helped temper feelings about the housing market in Fannie Mae's latest National Housing Survey. However, respondents were also more likely to report income gains or expect their personal financial situation to improve.

    The Home Purchase Sentiment Index for November stood at 86.2, up half a point from November but a year-over-year drop of 1.6 points. Fannie Mae said the monthly gain was largely due to a higher share of respondents reporting a significant increase to their household income. A net share of 24 percent said their income has grown substantially in the past 12 months, a survey high and a gain of 5 percentage points from October as well as 10 percentage points from November 2017.

    "The HPSI has moved within a tight range over the past five months, as positive sentiment regarding the overall economy continued to offset cooling housing sentiment," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Consumers' perceptions of growth in their household income reached a survey high this month, helping to absorb some of the impact of increasing mortgage rates on housing market activity. Meanwhile, the net share of consumers expecting home prices to increase over the next 12 months continues to moderate, dropping by 13 percentage points since this time last year."

    Respondents were slightly more likely to consider the market to be favorable to homebuyers, although they were still more likely to consider sellers to have the upper hand. Fifty-seven percent said they thought it was a good time to buy a home, up 2 points from October but a year-over-year decline of 4 points. Thirty-four percent said they thought it was a bad time to buy a home, unchanged from the previous month but up 2 points from the previous year.

    Sixty-three percent said they thought it was a good time to sell a home, up 1 point from both the previous month and previous year. Twenty-eight percent said they thought it was a bad time, up 1 point from October to match the same share in November 2017.

    Thirteen percent said they believe home prices will go down in the next 12 months, nearly double the November 2017 share of 7 percent and up from 9 percent in October. Forty-six percent said they think prices will go up, unchanged from the previous month and down 7 points from the previous year.

    The average respondent said they think home prices will grow by 2.5 percent in the next 12 months. This was down from 2.6 percent in the previous two months and 3.7 percent in November 2017.

    Sixty percent of respondents said they think mortgage rates will increase in the next 12 months, down 1 point from the previous month but up 4 points from the previous year. Four percent said they think rates will fall, unchanged from October but down 1 point from November 2017.

    Fifty-seven percent said they think it would be easy to get a mortgage today, up 5 points from the previous month but 2 points below the share from November 2017. Forty percent said they thought it would be difficult to get a mortgage, down 5 points from the previous month and a year-over-year increase of 2 points.

    Respondents continued to favor buying to renting, with 68 percent saying they would choose the former option if they were to move. This was down 1 point from October but a year-over-year increase of 3 points. Twenty-eight percent said they would rent, up 2 points from the previous month but down 2 points from the previous year.

    Sixty percent said they expect home rental prices to increase in the next 12 months, unchanged from the previous year but up 3 points from October. Four percent said they think rents will go down, unchanged from the previous month and up 2 points from the previous year. On average, respondents said they expect rents to go up by 4.4 percent – up from 4.3 percent in October but down from 4.9 percent in November 2017.

    Thirty-two percent said their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, up 3 points from the previous month and 7 points from the previous year. The share of respondents saying they have experienced a significant reduction in their income fell from 11 percent in November 2017 and 10 percent in October to 8 percent.

    Fifty-one percent said they believe their personal financial situation will improve in the next 12 months – up 4 points from October and 1 point from November 2017. Ten percent said they think their finances will worsen, down 1 point from both the previous month and previous year.

    Eighty-eight percent said they were not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months, down 1 point from the previous month but up 1 point from the previous year. Eleven percent said they were worried about job security, unchanged from October but down 2 points from November 2017.

    Fifty-three percent said they thought the U.S. economy was on the right track, dropping 6 points from October but still 3 points higher than in November 2017. Thirty-seven percent said they think the economy is on the wrong track, a year-over-year drop of 1 point but an increase of 4 points from the previous month.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey polls approximately 1,000 American adults each month via telephone, asking more than 100 questions to track changes in attitudes toward the housing market and economy.

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