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    Saturday, May 11, 2024

    Favorable mortgage rates buoy home purchase sentiment in Fannie Mae survey

    Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index inched up 0.1 points to reach a new high point in August. Falling mortgage rates were primarily responsible for the month's trend, as more people expected that it would be easy to qualify for a mortgage.

    The index stood at 93.8, a year-over-year gain of 5.8 points. The figure is based on six factors from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, including whether respondents consider it a good time to buy or sell a home, expected changes to home prices and mortgage rates, perceived job security, and changes in household income.

    "Growing expectations that mortgage rates will remain flat or decline are reflected in the HPSI's latest reading, which is now at a survey high even though other indicators of economic and housing market sentiment are flat to negative," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Unfortunately, much of the lower interest rate environment can be attributed to global economic uncertainties, which appear to have dampened consumer sentiment regarding the direction of the economy. We do expect housing market activity to remain relatively stable, and the favorable rate environment should continue supporting increased refinance activity."

    According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has fallen about 1.5 points since a recent high of nearly 5 percent in November 2018. In the National Housing Survey, just 33 percent of respondents said they expect mortgage rates to increase in the next 12 months – down 6 percentage points from July and 25 percentage points from August 2018. Sixteen percent said they think rates will continue to drop, up 5 percentage points from the previous month and 10 percentage points from the previous year.

    Sixty-two percent said they think it would be easy to qualify for a mortgage if they applied for one today, up 5 percentage points from the previous month and 4 percentage points from the previous year. Thirty-six percent thought it would be difficult to qualify for a mortgage, down 4 percentage points from July and 5 percentage points from August 2018.

    Attitudes on home buying and selling remained relatively unchanged. Fifty-eight percent said they thought it was a good time to buy a home, up 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year. Thirty-three percent said they thought it was a bad time to buy a home, up 2 percentage points from July but a year-over-year drop of 3 percentage points.

    Sixty-six percent said they would buy their next home if they were to move, unchanged from the previous month and down 1 percentage point from the previous year. Twenty-nine percent said they would rent their next home, unchanged from July and up 1 percentage point from August 2018.

    Sixty-five percent said they considered it a good time to sell a home, down 2 percentage points from the previous month but up 1 percentage point from the previous year. Twenty-five percent said they thought it was a bad time to sell a home, up 2 percentage points from July but down 1 percentage point from August 2018.

    Forty-seven percent said they think home prices will go up in the next 12 months, up 2 percentage points from the previous month but down 1 percentage point from the previous year. Eleven percent said they expect home prices to fall, up from 8 percent in July and 10 percent in August 2018. On average, respondents expected home prices to climb 2.4 percent over the next year – down from expectations of 2.5 percent in the previous month and 2.8 percent in the previous year.

    Fifty-nine percent said they think home rental prices will go up in the next 12 months, unchanged from August 2018 and down 1 percentage point from the previous month. Three percent said they think rental prices will go down, unchanged from July but down from 5 percent in August 2018. On average, respondents said they expect rental prices to increase by 4.6 percent in the next 12 months – down from 4.7 percent in July but up from 4.4 percent in August 2018.

    Eighty-eight percent said they weren't concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months, down from 90 percent in both the previous month and previous year. Eleven percent said they were worried about potential unemployment, up 2 percentage points from July and 1 percentage point from August 2018.

    Thirty-one percent said their household income has increased significantly in the past 12 months, unchanged from the previous year but up 1 percentage point from July. Ten percent said their household income is significantly lower, up 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year.

    Forty-nine percent said they believe their personal financial situation will improve in the next 12 months, up 1 percentage point from July but down 4 percentage points from August 2018. Ten percent said they think their financial situation will get worse, down from 11 percent in July and 12 percent in August 2018.

    Half of the survey's respondents said they think the U.S. economy is on the right track, down from 55 percent in the previous month and 51 percent in the previous year. Forty-one percent said they think the economy is on the wrong track, unchanged from the previous year but up 6 percentage points from July.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey is based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 American households. Respondents are asked more than 100 questions on the housing market and economy to gauge attitudinal shifts over time.

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