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    Friday, May 03, 2024

    Relax folks, the numbers don't usually add up with prospects

    We begin today with a flawed premise that’s become gospel within college sports, falling victim to what’s called Argumentum Ad Numerum: The more people who believe something, the more likely it is to be true. Even if it’s not.

    And so we’re supposed to accept another sign that more warts are emerging within the empire known as UConn women’s basketball. Two straight years without a national championship … and now this: All the top-ranked high school players are going elsewhere.

    Gasp.

    Stack the chairs on the table tops. Hang the sheets on the chandeliers. Hose down the fire. The end is near.

    Yes, we speak in hyperbole. The daughters of Geno ain’t dead yet. But this stuff about UConn’s recruiting woes reeks of absurdity.

    Start here: What, exactly, qualifies Haley Jones (just chose Stanford over UConn) as the No. 1 prospect in the country?

    What, exactly, qualifies Aliyah Boston (just chose South Carolina over UConn) as the No. 3 recruit?

    What, there’s some scientific formula? Did Red on Roundball reincarnate and start a scouting service? Is it sabermetrics? Maybe Jones has a particularly fabulous launch angle on her jump shot?

    The answer is much simpler. The numbers are a sham. Contrived. They are ESPN “rankings.” Except that we have no idea the credentials of the people doing the rankings. Or how many times they’ve seen the players in question. Or where. Or against whom. Or whether they know that “four corners” is an actual offensive strategy and not an area in Flanders.

    But this is how it works now. ESPN — or some other entity whose findings are solidly supported by their own opinions — tells us that Jones is No. 1, as opposed to No. 17, 41 or 56, and we fall for it.

    The numbers mean nothing. As UConn coach Geno Auriemma likes to say, “you know how we’ll know if these kids are any good when they get to college? When they get to college.”

    Yep. When they see better competition, different coaching and adjust to all the vagaries of college life. How they adjust is a crapshoot.

    Consider, for example, had the Huskies been shunned in 2012 by all the recruits with the lofty numbers attached to their names. Imagine if they’d ever been — gulp — stuck with the No. 26 recruit in the country, subject to the same criticism they are now.

    They’re just not getting the best players anymore.

    The empire is crumbling.

    Their best recruit is No. 26?

    What’s happening?

    That No. 26 kid was Kelsey Plum, who only became the NCAA’s career scoring leader.

    Hmmm.

    The great Carl Adamec, the dean of UConn women’s beat writers, also reports that in the same year, Karlie Samuelson, Katie Lou’s sister, was but the No. 77 player in the country. Karlie made it to the WNBA.

    Auriemma ever gracious and insightful the other night after the DePaul game talking about this stuff, said he’s quite happy with No. 33 recruit Aubrey Griffin. Auriemma said Griffin “is exactly what we need.”

    Funny, but I get the feeling parts of the fandom are more willing to believe ESPN’s contrived numbers than an 11-time national championship coach.

    More from Adamec:

    “I looked this up quick: Aubrey Griffin is rated No. 33 by Hoopgurlz. The 2018 No. 33 recruit was Taylor Mikesell, who is starting as a freshman at Maryland and averaging 14.4 points so far, and had 20 points in a win over Georgia Tech last night.

    “The 2017 No. 33 recruit was Destiny Littleton, who is getting good playing time off the bench as a sophomore at Texas and averaging 8.1 points early. The 2016 No. 33 recruit was Araion Bradshaw, who was actually a teammate of Molly Bent at Tabor Academy. She was a seldom-used reserve on South Carolina's national championship team and then transferred to Dayton. She starts at the point for Dayton and is averaging 6.2 points and 4.7 assists, including 11 points, six rebounds and three assists, in 30 minutes in a 10-point loss at South Carolina Wednesday night.”

    The larger point: We have allowed recruiting rankings to become a pox on college sports. They’re not even worth rhetorical usefulness because they’re nothing more than dressed up guesswork. And the idea that two years without a national championship and a few recruits who have decided to go elsewhere suddenly means UConn’s dominance is on the 18th green is just moronic.

    So let’s try to enjoy the rest of the season, watching these crumbling Huskies. Maybe they’ll stay within 40 at Notre Dame on Sunday. Maybe a talented high school kid or two will still want to come.

    We’ll just have to wait and see what numbers they have attached to her names. That’s what counts, apparently.

    This is the opinion of Day sports columnist Mike DiMauro

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