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    Monday, May 13, 2024

    Are Trump, China headed for 'geoeconomic' showdown?

    Which presidential candidate in the recent election do you think expressed most explicitly the desire, if elected, to throw around the nation’s economic power to gain policy objectives that benefit Americans?

    If you answered Donald Trump, we agree.

    I was somewhat surprised, then, to hear a former member of Hillary Clinton’s policy planning staff during Clinton’s time as secretary of state, and who later served as an adviser to the Clinton campaign, describe a foreign policy approach that seemed more aligned with Trump’s campaign rhetoric than that of Clinton.

    Jennifer M. Harris, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, is the co-author of “War by Other Means,” a book that makes the case for more aggressive use of geoeconomics in pursuing foreign policy goals. Her co-author is Robert D. Blackwill, also a senior fellow at the council, a foreign policy think tank.

    Harris spoke Tuesday in Old Lyme to the Southeast Connecticut World Affairs Council, of which I am a member.

    Geoeconomics, as defined in Harris’ book, is the use of economic interests to promote and defend national interests and produce beneficial policy outcomes. The authors make the case that geoeconomics should be seen as a legitimate and important foreign policy tool, one which can be used to avoid the far more costly and destructive alternative of using war to obtain objectives.

    In her local lecture, Harris said China is doing it well and aggressively, the United States poorly and without a coherent strategy.

    Examples provided in the book include China’s methods of discouraging nations from showing support for Tibet, subjugated by China, by having official visits with the Dalai Lama. One study showed that a nation’s export levels to China drop by an average 8.1 percent after meetings with the exiled Tibetan leader. In 2014, the prime minister of Norway refused to meet with the Dalai Lama when he arrived to note the 25th anniversary of his having received the Nobel Peace Prize in that country.

    “We need to focus on our relationship with China,” said Foreign Minister Borge Brende at the time.

    Or consider growing Chinese influence in Africa, where China paid out $80 billion in aid and projects from 2000 to 2012, careful to focus on areas where national leaders were born. And China’s leaders can be quick to pull such aid if they don’t get what they want, Harris said.

    Under the Obama administration and prior presidents, the United States has been reluctant to play geoeconomic hardball. The policy consensus has been that such tactics interfere with free markets, will lead to economically damaging escalation, and that with its economic strength the U.S. will benefit in the long term by not helping take the world down that path.

    It seemed apparent, from Harris’ presentation, that she would have pushed for geoeconomic tactics to have a higher profile in a Hillary Clinton presidency. She won’t get that chance.

    When I noted that Trump’s campaign oratory more closely aligned with such an approach, Harris didn’t disagree.

    “Some of the things he has said are right in the wheelhouse of what I’m talking about,” Harris conceded.

    She pointed to Trump’s statement that he would be willing to ban the purchase of Saudi Arabian oil for domestic use if that country does not curtail its backdoor support for Sunni terrorist groups. Indeed, the next day the New York Times broke a story about the extent to which some within the Saudi Kingdom use their vast wealth to support the Taliban in Afghanistan.

    But Harris also raised doubts if a Trump administration would have the consistency and sophistication to use geoeconomics effectively. This is complex stuff.

    Last week, the Trump Transition team was bragging about the president-elect’s meeting with Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son, the CEO of Softbank, about plans to invest upwards of $100 billion in U.S. high-tech startup companies. But the Wall Street Journal soon reported the big money behind that plan would come from — you guessed it — Saudi Arabia. Looks like the Saudis are laying some geoeconomics on the U.S.

    Trump signaled to China that he is ready to shake things up when he took a congratulatory call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. If you want to anger Chinese leaders — who consider Taiwan “an inalienable part of China”— that is how to do it.

    China’s next move after Trump takes the oath of office could prove interesting. The new president might think about giving Harris and her co-author a call.

    Paul Choiniere is the editorial page editor.

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