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    Wednesday, May 08, 2024

    Races to watch in Tuesday's election

    What will Tuesday bring?

    Will Hillary Clinton make history as the first woman president-elect? And if she does, will she have a Democrat-controlled Senate with which to work? She may need it. Republican leaders in the House of Representatives, which will almost certainly remain in GOP hands, are already promising to investigate Clinton concerning emails and the Clinton Foundation.

    Or will the nation give Donald Trump his chance to build a beautiful wall and make America great again? If Trump wins, chances are good the Senate remains in Republican hands. Who knows what The Donald, with Republican control of the House and Senate, may do? Critics, including me, shudder at the thought.

    Maybe we wake up Wednesday with no clear winner and a Bush-Gore recount redux.

    On Friday in his FiveThirtyEight blog, Nate Silver, who has made election predicting a statistical science, gave Democrats a 61 percent chance of gaining control of the Senate by a razor-thin margin. A 50-50 split is possible. That would give the tie-breaking vote to the vice president.

    As for the presidential election, Silver’s blog had Clinton’s chances of winning at 64 percent, with Trump closing during the final days of the campaign.

    “Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot,” wrote Silver.

    Locally, two state legislative seats long held by Democrats are in play.

    For the last decade Rep. Ed Jutila, a Democrat, has served the 37th House District covering East Lyme and Salem. All told, Democrats have controlled the seat for 26 years. Republicans feel their candidate, East Lyme Selectwoman Holly H. Cheeseman, can break that streak in her race against Democrat Beth Hogan, a former East Lyme first selectwoman.

    Also not seeking re-election after 10 years, due to medical issues, is Democratic state Sen. Andrew Maynard in the 18th District. In what’s been a bitterly contested race in the district that stretches from Groton and Stonington on the coast north to Plainfield, former state Rep. Tim Bowles is trying to keep the seat in the Democratic column. He faces a formidable opponent in Heather Somers, a former Groton councilor and mayor and the Republican Party’s candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014.

    Republicans see the 18th District race as critical to their hopes to pick up the four seats necessary to gain control of the Senate, a long but not impossible shot. Ending Democratic dominance in Hartford — Democrats control the Senate, House and governor’s position — would significantly change the dynamics of the budget debate.

    Republicans can’t afford to lose Senate seats, but two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Art Linares is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Norm Needleman, the popular first selectman of Essex. The 33rd District runs from Madison and Old Saybrook on the coast north to Colchester and East Hampton.

    In Groton, voters will decide a $184 million school building and renovation plan intended to bring greater racial diversity to its classrooms, in compliance with a state regulation, and replace aging schools. About $84 million would come from local taxpayers, $100 million from the state.

    State residents might want to watch the outcome of ballot initiatives in five states that would legalize the recreational use of marijuana — Massachusetts, Maine, Arizona, Nevada and California. Recreational marijuana is now legal in Alaska, Colorado, Oregon and Washington.

    Voter approval, particularly in Massachusetts and Maine, could apply pressure in Connecticut to legalize pot. Rhode Island already is moving in that direction. And spreading legalization would bolster the movement to alter the designation of marijuana under federal law, still a “Schedule 1” drug alongside heroin and LSD.

    It all makes for an interesting election night.

    Paul Choiniere is the editorial page editor.

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