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    Real Estate
    Tuesday, May 14, 2024

    Consumer confidence hits record high in latest Fannie Mae housing survey

    Positive attitudes were dominant among the respondents in the latest National Housing Survey, with more people indicating that they thought it was a good time to either buy or sell a home. Respondents also remained optimistic about the prospects for their financial situation in the coming year.

    The Home Purchase Sentiment Index for February's survey stood at 88.3, jumping from 82.7 in January and 81.5 in February 2016. This index is based on six factors, including opinions on whether it is a good time to buy or sell a home; expected changes to home prices, mortgage rates, and household income; and perceived job security.

    "The latest post-election surge in optimism puts the HPSI at its highest level since its starting point in 2011," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Millennials showed especially strong increases in job confidence and income gains, a necessary precursor for increased housing demands from first-time homebuyers. Preliminary research from our team find that Millennials are accelerating the rate at which they move out of their parents' homes and form new households. However, continued slow supply growth implies continued strong price appreciation and affordability constraints facing Millennials and first-time buyers in many markets."

    Two-thirds of the survey's respondents said they thought it was a good time to buy a home, up from 60 percent in January and 63 percent in February 2015. The share of respondents considering it a bad time to buy fell to 26 percent, down from 31 percent in the previous month and 28 percent in the previous year.

    Respondents also expressed more confidence about selling a home, with 56 percent saying it was a good time to put a property on the market. This share was up from 52 percent in January and 50 percent in February 2016. Thirty-four percent considered it a bad time to sell a home, a decrease of 3 percentage points from January and 9 percentage points from February 2016.

    The share of respondents expecting home prices to go up in the next year has risen steadily in recent years. Fifty-three percent believe prices will increase in the next 12 months, up from 50 percent in January and 44 percent in February 2016. Eight percent believe home prices will decrease, unchanged from the previous month and down 3 percentage points from the previous year.

    On average, respondents expect home prices to increase 3.2 percent over the next 12 months. This expectation was the same as January's survey, but up from 1.7 percent in February 2016.

    Fifty-six percent of respondents said they expect home rental prices to increase in the next 12 months, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month and 4 percentage points from the previous year. Three percent said they believe rental prices will go down, the same as February 2016 and down 1 percentage point from January. The average expected increase in home rental prices over the next 12 months was 3.8 percent, down from 4.3 percent in the previous month but up from 3.3 percent in the previous year.

    Sixty-six percent said they would buy a home if they were to move, up from 64 percent in January and 63 percent in February 2016. Twenty-nine percent said they would rent a home, down 1 percentage point from the previous month and 2 percentage points from the previous year.

    Sixty-one percent said they expect mortgage rates to go up in the next 12 months, unchanged from January but a year-over-year increase of 6 percentage points. Six percent said they expect rates to go down, the same as the previous month but up 1 percentage point from February 2016.

    Despite the expectations for higher rates and home prices, 56 percent said they thought it would be easy to qualify for a mortgage. This share was up 6 percentage points from January and 2 percentage points from February 2016. Forty percent said they thought it would be difficult to get a mortgage, down 6 percentage points from the previous month and 3 percentage points from the previous year.

    Nearly nine out of 10 respondents—89 percent—said they were not worried about losing their job in the next 12 months. This share was up 5 percentage points from January and 2 percentage points from February 2016. The share of respondents who were worried about a job loss dropped from 12 percent in February 2016 and 15 percent in January to 11 percent.

    Twenty-eight percent said their household income has increased significantly in the past year, up 2 percentage points from the previous month and 1 percentage point from the previous year. Nine percent said their household income has fallen significantly in the past 12 months, down from 11 percent in January and 12 percent in February 2016.

    Fifty-two percent said they believe their personal financial situation will improve in the next 12 months, up 1 percentage point from the previous month and 6 percentage points from the previous year. Seven percent said they believe their financial situation will worsen, down from 12 percent in the previous month and 13 percent in the previous year.

    Forty-eight percent said they think the American economy is on the right track, up 2 percentage points from January and 11 percentage points from February 2016. Thirty-five percent said they think the economy is on the wrong track, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous month and 21 percentage points from the previous year.

    The National Housing Survey, which has been issued since June 2010, polls a representative sample of 1,000 American adults to gauge opinions on the housing market and economy. Respondents are interviewed by telephone and asked more than 100 questions on these topics.

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