State Senate Minority Leader Len Fasano, R-North Haven, has no illusions that Donald Trump will carry state Republicans to victory this fall as Ronald Reagan did 32 years ago, when his coattails helped them gain a stunning 11 Senate seats for a 24-12 advantage.

But Fasano sees opportunity in the hunger for change in a state governed by a Democratic governor and General Assembly with dismal approval ratings.

Also sensing an opportunity not seen in two decades, the state's largest business lobby – the Connecticut Business and Industry Association – has committed $400,000 to electing a slate of business-friendly candidates, including four Republicans running for the Connecticut Senate.

Recent polling has shown voters in the state are concerned about a slate of issues that hit close to home – higher taxes, departing businesses and the state's seemingly unending budgetary crisis.

But Democrats say voters trust their party's leadership and the Democratic representatives they know, who have worked to create jobs and grow the middle class despite a sluggish economy.

If the GOP can gain four seats, it will turn a 21-15 Democratic advantage into a 19-17 Republican majority, giving them control of the chamber for the first time in 20 years.

"Every seat is in play," Fasano said. "The governor's at 24 percent. The legislature's at 24 percent in the last poll, and I think when they say the legislature, that just reflects the policies that the legislature has passed, which means the Democratic majority is at 24 percent."

Fasano may say that every one of the 21 Democratic seats is in play, but the number of truly competitive races is much smaller. Republicans most probably are targeting a half-dozen Democratic districts – five with incumbents and one open seat. That means a majority requires winning four of six targeted races, while not losing any of their current 15 seats.

One of the key races is in the 18th District, where Sen. Andrew Maynard, a Stonington Democrat, is not running for reelection. Timothy Bowles, a Democrat, and Heather Somers, a Republican, are running for that seat.

Two years ago, the GOP hoped to accomplish that same goal with seven open seats on the map, six of which were considered competitive.

While Republicans picked up one seat and came close in several others, they fell well short of the five they needed to claim the majority when the dust settled in 2014.

With only one open Democratic seat in 2016, it would seem Republicans have less to be optimistic about. But as the legislature's approval rating continues to plummet, that's not the case.

Senate incumbents infrequently lose. State Democratic leaders pushed hard to get two incumbents – Sen. Terry Gerratana, D-New Britain, and Sen. Steve Cassano, D-Manchester – to run for re-election, which the party believes increases their chances to hold those seats.

Only four of the current 36 state senators were elected to office in victories over incumbents. The other 32 senators won races for open seats spread out over the last two and a half decades. Of the two open seats in this election cycle, one is already held by a Republican.

But even tightening the margin could have significant implications for Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy in the final two years of his second term.

Democrats know the legislature is not faring well in public opinion polls, but Senate Majority Leader Bob Duff, D-Norwalk, says some of this can be attributed to the unpopularity of the U.S. Congress. He believes many respondents in recent polls are not differentiating between the state and federal legislatures, and therefore are not as dissatisfied with the state's Democratic majority as the polls would indicate.

Republicans say voters know the difference, and they plan to portray Senate Democrats as servants of Malloy, who is midway through his second and, mostly likely, final term. Fasano calls them "rollover Democrats," senators who fall in line with the caucus leadership and governor, unable or unwilling to show any measure of independence.

He named two exceptions – Sen. Joan Hartley, D-Waterbury, and Sen. Paul Doyle, D-Wethersfield – and said Republicans did not plan to aggressively challenge either as a result of their willingness to break with the Democratic majority.

Duff says "rollover Democrat" sounds like "a poll-tested catchphrase," and the GOP's only option is to "throw bombs and talk politics." He denies that Democrats are not allowed to voice dissent and says Republican "fear-mongering" is out of touch with the state.

Then there are questions about what role the presidential race might play in the down-ballot contests. Little consensus exists between political scientists on the "presidential coattails" effect. The strength tends to vary from year to year and state to state based on the candidates running.

Connecticut has supported every Democratic president since Bill Clinton's first victory in 1992, often helping down-ballot Democrats. But Fasano sees Trump and Hillary Clinton, each viewed unfavorably by Connecticut voters in the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, as having little impact.

"I don't think Trump's going to have huge coattails; that's just a guess," Fasano said. "I think both sides have candidates who are the most unlikable candidates ever to run. ... Both parties have this anomaly going on that we'll never really know how that shakes out until the very end."

While Duff did not comment directly on what impact Trump might have, Democrats believe if the state's Republicans are relying on Trump to be the difference in this race, they will be disappointed on Election Day.

"If they're attached to the hip with Trump, I'm very happy," Duff said.

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