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    Sunday, May 05, 2024

    Housing sentiments wane slightly in Fannie Mae survey for February

    While a record share of Americans reported job confidence in February, fewer people in Fannie Mae's monthly housing survey were optimistic about the housing market. The share of respondents expecting home price growth to continue was declining, and people were slightly more likely to have negative opinions on both home buying and home selling conditions.

    The Home Purchase Sentiment Index for the month stood at 84.3, a decrease of 0.4 points from the previous month and 1.5 points from the previous year. The index is based on six factors from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, including opinions on whether it's a good time to buy or sell a home, expected changes in home prices and mortgage rates, changes in household income, and worries about unemployment. The net share of respondents with a positive outlook on the housing market was down on an annual basis, but favorable outlooks toward the economy showed year-over-year improvement.

    Forty-three percent of respondents said they think home prices will increase in the next 12 months, down from 45 percent in the previous month and 52 percent in the previous year. Ten percent said they think prices will go down, up 3 percentage points from the previous year but down 5 percentage points from January.

    The average respondent said they expect home prices to go up 2.5 percent in the next 12 months. This was up from 1.6 percent in the previous month but down from 3.3 percent in the previous year.

    "While declining home price expectations may point to improving affordability, the share of consumers who think it's a bad time to buy has grown over the last year, and high home prices remain the most frequently cited concern," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "It is plausible that consumers believe that price gains could decelerate further, making it worthwhile to wait rather than act now."

    Fifty-three percent said they consider it a good time to buy a home, unchanged from the previous month but down 4 percentage points from February 2018. Thirty-eight percent considered it a bad time to buy, the same as in January and up 3 percentage points from the previous year.

    Mortgage expectations remained relatively unchanged. Fifty-eight percent said they thought it would be easy to get a mortgage, up 3 percentage points from January and 1 percentage point from February 2018. Forty percent said they thought it would be difficult, down from 41 percent in the previous year and 42 percent in the previous month.

    Fifty-five percent said they think mortgage rates will increase in the next 12 months, falling from 62 percent in February 2018 and 59 percent in January. However, just 3 percent said they think rates will go down – falling from 6 percent in the previous month and 5 percent in the previous year.

    Sixty percent said they considered it a good time to sell a home, down 3 percentage points from both the previous month and previous year. The share believing it to be a bad time to sell a home climbed from 27 percent in February 2018 and 28 percent in January to 30 percent.

    Fifty-six percent said they think home rental prices will increase in the next 12 months, down from 58 percent in the previous month and 59 percent in the previous year. Three percent said they think rental prices will go down, dropping 3 percentage points from January and 1 percentage point from February 2018.

    The average respondent said they think rental prices will go up by 4.3 percent over the next 12 months. This was up from 3.8 percent in January but slightly lower than the average expectation of 4.4 percent in February 2018.

    Nine out of 10 respondents said they weren't worried about losing their job in the next 12 months, a survey high. This was up 4 percentage points from the previous month and 5 percentage points from the previous year. Nine percent said they were worried about potential unemployment, down from 13 percent in January and 14 percent in February 2018.

    The share of respondents indicating that their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago fell sharply from the previous month, dropping from 34 percent in January to 27 percent in February; however, this was still 1 percentage point higher than the previous year. Nine percent said their income is significantly lower, unchanged from the previous year and up 2 percentage points from the previous month.

    Similarly, the share of respondents expecting their personal financial situation to improve in the next 12 months fell to 45 percent – down 6 percentage points from January and 5 percentage points from February 2018. Twelve percent said they think their personal financial situation will worsen, up from 9 percent in the previous year and 11 percent in the previous month.

    Fifty-two percent said they think the economy is on the right track, climbing 3 percentage points from January but a year-over-year drop of 1 percentage point. Thirty-eight percent considered the economy to be on the wrong track, down 5 percentage points from the previous month but up 3 percentage points on an annual basis.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey contacts approximately 1,000 Americans each month via telephone. Respondents are asked more than 100 questions on the housing market and economy to gauge attitudinal shifts on various topics.

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