It has been a tough go for Connecticut Republicans since the last GOP governor, M. Jodi Rell, decided not to run in 2010. That year Democrat Dan Malloy defeated Republican Tom Foley. A vulnerable Malloy then beat Foley again in 2014, despite leading a state in perpetual fiscal crisis and with an economy that could not dig out from the damage of the Great Recession.

Republicans did have short-term success in eroding Democratic dominance in the state legislature, in 2016 gaining an 18-18 split in the Senate and narrowing the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives to a few votes. In the two elections since, Democratic supremacy has reemerged, with 24-12 control of the Senate, 97-54 of the House.

But, as Annie sings, "Ya gotta hang on 'til tomorrow, come what may," or, in the case of Connecticut Republicans — 'til the next election. And there is growing hope among party faithful that "the sun'll come out" next November in yet another rematch, this time between incumbent Democrat Gov. Ned Lamont and the man he defeated in 2018, Bob Stefanowski.

While there is reason for this optimism, Lamont remains the solid favorite.

A united party?

In search of Republican positives, the party appears ready to coalesce behind Stefanowski. This would be quite unlike 2018 when five Republicans competed in the primary. The party was badly splintered. Stefanowski, who had skipped the nominating convention, won the primary with only 29.4% of the vote. Meanwhile, Republican primary voters chose then-Sen. Joe Markley, a staunch conservative, to run as lieutenant governor with Stefanowski. In a state that often awards moderates, and where Republicans must dominate among unaffiliated voters, Markley the ideologue proved to be a drag on the ticket.

There is already speculation Stefanowski will turn this time to affable New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart to be his running mate. Stewart, ever sunny and optimistic, has proved a Republican can win in a traditionally Democratic city by tempering fiscal conservatism with cultural sensitivity and a willingness to admit sometimes more spending is the answer. Many state conservatives dismiss the 34-year-old mayor as a RINO — Republican in name only — but they would be wise to welcome her onto the ticket if the goal is to expand the brand and win.

Stefanowski, meanwhile, has shelved the unrealistic pledge he made in 2018 to eliminate the state income tax if elected. His new messaging is a traditional Republican call to trim the size of government and reduce taxes, starting with the sales tax. In his early commercials, which have him talking with everyday folk and are meant to soften his image, Stefanowski pledges to audit every state agency to find waste. Of course, auditors already review state agency spending but, hey, it is a political ad.

No so fast

Casting shade on this sunny Republican optimism is the popularity of the governor. A November survey conducted by Morning Consult showed a 64% approval rating for Lamont, highest in the country for a Democratic governor, though trailing six Republican governors.

Despite some stumbles, Lamont has received good grades for his handling of the long pandemic. And during his time in office, Connecticut has gone from budget deficits to a record surplus and rainy-day fund. If he is successful in turning that surplus into tax relief — Lamont has targeted increasing and expanding the property tax credit, eliminating the income tax on pensions and 401(K) distributions for most retirees, and capping car taxes — it will be tough for Stefanowski to score points on fiscal policy.

To have any chance, Republicans need to significantly erode Lamont's approval rating. They are hoping a recent scandal in the administration can do the trick. But I doubt it.

Konstantinos Diamantis, former deputy secretary of the Office of Policy and Management, is under federal investigation involving allegations he steered school construction business involving state funds to Construction Advocacy Professionals LLC, a consultant that employed his daughter.

Also under investigation is the hiring by Chief State's Attorney Richard Colangelo Jr. of the same daughter, Anastasia Diamantis, to work in the Connecticut Division of Criminal Justice. Her hiring came at a time Colangelo was lobbying Diamantis for pay raises for prosecutors. 

Lamont fired Diamantis from his deputy secretary job in October. Colangelo recently announced his resignation. The state has placed Anastasia Diamantis on administrative leave from her state job.

There is no indication Lamont benefitted from any of this or sought to cover it up. In fact, former U.S. Attorney Stanley Twardy Jr. assembled a damning report about the misconduct after Lamont appointed him to investigate. Nonetheless, it is embarrassing for the governor. Lamont's inner circle missed or failed to act on warning signs that could have alerted the governor far earlier that things were amiss. And more troubling revelations about the handling of other state contracts, including for work to redevelop State Pier in New London, could emerge.

The scandal will make for strong attack ads targeting Lamont. Still, short of the scandal reaching directly to the governor, it is not enough to turn an election.

The irony for Republicans is that if in 2018 they had unified quickly behind a candidate, sought to balance the ticket, and skipped the income-tax repeal silliness, they could have defeated Lamont. This time, as the incumbent, Lamont poses a far tougher challenge.

When your best hope is for a scandal to grow, you are not in a great position.

Paul Choiniere is the former editorial page editor of The Day, now retired.