Groton- As three crews of sailors, and their paychecks, pull out of Groton permanently this year, local retailers could see an estimated annual loss of between $7 million and $8 million, according to an economic researcher.

The loss should eventually be tempered by future Virginia-class submarines to be commissioned and homeported at the Naval Submarine Base in Groton, bringing sailors and their spending power back to the area.

But some are worried about the impact on the local economy in the meantime, particularly given the current climate.

”It's akin to losing three small companies in the region, in the sense that we've got skilled people who are contributing to the local economy and the local community,” said state Sen. Andrew Maynard, D-Stonington.

”There is a trickle-down effect for those who were providing goods and services to the hundreds of people that are now gone,” said Denny Hicks, director of strategic planning for the Chamber of Commerce of Eastern Connecticut.

The number of submarines homeported at the base has fluctuated between 16 and 18 since 2001. Currently the base has 18, but the USS Hawaii is moving to Naval Station Pearl Harbor this summer, to be joined by the USS Texas in the fall. The USS Albuquerque is moving to San Diego this summer.

The moves, which will temporarily bring the number of submarines in Groton down to 15, are part of the Navy's realignment of submarines between the coasts to counter the increased threat posed by other countries' submarines.

An average household in New London County spends about $25,000 annually on retail and household goods. Submariners spend less in areas like health care, which is provided through the government, and on certain goods that they can purchase at the base commissary. There are also a lot of single sailors, bringing the average annual household spending for them down to about $19,000, according to Jeff Blodgett, vice president of research at the Connecticut Economic Resource Center.

This means that the three crews of 140 people each, some with spouses and children, collectively spend between $7 million and $8 million annually, Blodgett said, adding that this is a conservative estimate.

Blodgett said so many businesses are reeling from the impact of this crisis, “this may be the proverbial straw that causes some of them to close the door.”

John Antonino, one of the principals in the Antonino Auto Group, said he does not expect to see a drop in car sales but possibly a slight decline in the service side of the business.

”A lot of the military personnel are transplants, and I may not be able to sell them a car, but I'll service theirs,” he said. “The average service visit is generally every 12,000 miles, so I'd be lucky to see them once or twice a year, which is not enough to really make a difference.”

Antonino said he was more interested in the fact that Electric Boat has recently hired engineers and designers, bringing people into the area with high salaries who may purchase his cars.

Fewer submarines locally means fewer for Electric Boat to work on, but executives have incorporated the effect of the moves into the business plan, said Robert Hamilton, company spokesman.

”There are still plenty of opportunities for us to do maintenance and modernization work at the base and as the ships leave Groton, we're back-filling with the new Virginia class to a great extent,” he said.

The next Virginia-class submarine, the New Mexico, is on track to be delivered to the Navy and possibly commissioned by the end of the year, followed by the Missouri in 2010, Hamilton said.

”We have submarines leaving for other ports, and that's part of life in Groton,” Maynard said, “but we're really looking forward to when the shiny new Virginia class are being plunked into the Thames and steaming upriver.”

More than 1,200 students out of the 5,100 in the Groton public schools have at least one parent in the military. Groton Superintendent Paul Kadri said the impact of the submarine moves would be “minor and temporary” since the children involved will be in different grades and some families may choose not to relocate.

Lt. Patrick Evans, public affairs officer for Submarine Group Two, called the base “the primary East Coast homeport for Virginia Class submarines to transition to the fleet” and said that the base's value to the submarine force will not change with these departures.

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