When I think of how experts invariably seem to guess right, I recall a deal played by Helen Sobel, one of the most intuitively brilliant players of all time.

Sobel became declarer at 3NT. She declined to mention her spades and instead made the value bid of 2NT at her second turn. Nevertheless, West placed South with some spade length and was reluctant to lead his singleton heart; he tried the deuce of clubs. Sobel won with the ace, and after a modest pause for thought she led ... the three of spades!

THIRD CLUB

East had to take the king. Sobel won the next club and led another low spade, felling East's ace. Declarer won the third club, finessed in hearts and made an overtrick.

Sobel based her "guess" in spades on an inferential count of the distribution. She knew West had four clubs for his lead of the deuce, hence no five-card suit, so West's distribution rated to be 4-1-4-4, East's 2-5-2-4. But East's opening bid marked him with the A-K of spades.

That's guessing!

DAILY QUESTION

You hold: S Q J 7 6 3 H A Q 5 D K J 7 C A Q. You open one spade, and your partner bids two clubs. The opponents pass. What do you say?

ANSWER: Jump to 3NT, promising balanced pattern and slightly too much high-card strength to open 1NT. Your partner can move toward slam if he wishes. I often see players fudge and open 2NT with this type of hand, but I believe it's better to mention the long major suit and perhaps keep the auction lower.