With high name recognition and a bulging war chest, Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney is proving to be difficult to beat in Tuesday’s election.

“Courtney is likely to win by a comfortable margin,” UConn political science professor Paul Herrnson, an expert on Congressional elections and political campaigns, wrote in an email to The Day.

By Courtney’s own admission, state Rep. Mike France, R-Ledyard, a Navy veteran, is one of the most serious candidates he’s had to face since he was elected in 2006 by an 83-vote margin against Stonington Republican Rob Simmons. (Courtney challenged Simmons in 2002 and lost.) But, Herrnson said, none of that matters — incumbency is the most important factor in who will win the race.

“Courtney enjoys high name recognition and France is relatively invisible,” Herrnson wrote.

The only local poll done on the race, released more than a week ago, conducted by the CT Examiner and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, found that France is unknown to 71% of likely voters.

National political forecasts, including Politico, Cook Report, Sabato Crystal Ball and 538, all have the district as “Likely Democratic,” while CNN and Inside Elections have it as “Solid Democratic.” The only deviation was RealClearPolitics, which had the race as a “Toss Up” despite the Examiner’s poll saying Courtney was out polling France by almost 20 points. It was changed to “Leans Democratic” this weekend. According to a 2020 story in the New York Times, “Real Clear Politics and its affiliated websites have taken a rightward, aggressively pro-Trump turn over the last four years.”

Herrnson, who has called Courtney a “prodigious fundraiser” in the past, said he “has outspent France by more than two to one and has almost six times more cash on hand — which he probably won’t need to spend.”

Between the end of June and the end of September, Courtney’s campaign more than doubled fundraising totals compared to France. Courtney had tripled France’s fundraising in the previous two quarters. Green Party candidate Kevin Blacker is not fundraising or accepting donations.

“A few outside groups have spent money in the race, but the total is trifling compared to the amounts committed to the competitive contests,” Herrnson wrote. “Abortion rights and the economy will surely be on the minds of voters, but they are unlikely to make a difference in a lopsided contest like this one.”

Herrnson said in a previous interview that Congressional challengers are immediately at a disadvantage due in part to the comforts of incumbency.

“Courtney’s pretty good about communicating with his constituents on a regular basis,” Herrnson said. “He’s got people and groups and PACs who have supported him before, and he knows what kinds of things they respond to. He gets media coverage because people in power get media coverage...he has all those advantages, and they count for a lot.”

Submarine contracts

The chairman of the House Armed Services’ Seapower subcommittee, Courtney has established his reputation as “Two Sub Joe” for securing two submarine contracts per year for Electric Boat in Groton. But France and Blacker questioned Courtney’s sub procurement record and his integrity.

France said Courtney’s predecessor, Simmons, doesn’t get enough credit for his efforts with sub contracts while in office.

“Joe Courtney runs around with this title of ‘Two Sub Joe,’ and that’s great, but that announcement was made about five months after he was sworn in. I don’t know what he did to make that happen,” France said in October. During a debate at The Garde Arts Center, France again sought to torpedo Courtney’s image as a strong advocate for the Navy contracts awarded in recent years to EB, saying China has achieved “maritime superiority” over the U.S. on Courtney’s watch. “Ever hear Joe talk about three subs a year?” France asked.

Courtney said EB was recovering from 1,400 layoffs when he took office and that he immediately helped reverse the shipyard’s fortunes, eventually securing guarantees of contracts for the building of two fast-attack submarines a year.

“We do have three subs,” he said. “We’ve got the Columbia program (in addition to two fast-attack Virginia-class subs).”

Courtney’s campaign referenced a slew of news reports that confirmed the Congressman as a freshman did what Simmons “fought hard to achieve but failed to deliver” in getting funds appropriated for sub contracts, according to a 2007 story from The Hill.

State Pier project

Blacker, the outspoken Port Authority critic, a farmer and landscaper from Noank with a degree in soil science, has used the race for Congress to advance his fight against what he sees as corruption and wasteful spending for the wind project at State Pier.

Blacker, endorsed by the Green Party, claimed Courtney is along for the ride on the State Pier project, meant to make New London an offshore wind hub and create clean energy.

“He’s going along, supporting the project, basically gushing over how great it is,” Blacker said. “I think that due to how powerful the political players are that are involved down there, nobody in conventional politics wants to speak up against it.”

Courtney responded to Blacker’s criticisms during the campaign.

“The one issue that has become (Blacker’s) signature, which is to block the offshore wind project, is contradictory to the Green Party’s stated mission to protect the environment and fight climate change,” Courtney said. He admitted the plan was flawed in the beginning, but with accommodations made for Cross Sound Ferry, a $750,000 yearly allowance to New London, and other changes, he believes it is now sound.

Blacker said in response, “The two FBI investigations and Attorney General investigation of State Pier are no more intended to block offshore wind than I am... I think offshore wind in its current form is a politician's solution to climate change. Gives guys like Joe something to talk about right before he asks you for a donation.”

Stock sales

Courtney and Sen. Richard Blumenthal, along with 97 other members of Congress, were named in a New York Times story saying they or their families bought or sold stock that could represent a conflict of interest for them. Courtney’s office said at the time that the securities in question were part of a rollover from his wife’s 401K plan when she changed jobs, and that the account was managed by an investment adviser who chose the assets.

France said he found it “troubling” that the statement from Courtney’s office on the report said the Congressman believes “you should not have the ability to trade in individual stocks.”

“Investment advisers have a fiduciary responsibility to do what you tell them to do,” he said. “If you tell them, ‘I only want to be in mutual funds or index funds,’ they have an obligation to maintain that.”

Roe v. Wade

France has tried to pin the race on the issues of inflation and public safety, as the Republican Party has looked to do statewide.

Ranking member on the General Assembly’s Appropriations Committee, France is running on his fiscal know-how. Courtney has said that France is too conservative for the 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses nearly the entire eastern half of the state.

France has defended his conservatism on voting rights: He does not question the results of the 2020 election, but: “Were there irregularities that happened? Certainly. I think there were actions by secretaries of the state and governors across the country that were unconstitutional.”

France’s conservative caucus has long maintained that Connecticut’s move toward no-excuse absentee voting during the pandemic was unconstitutional.

France has downplayed the issue of abortion as a distraction from pocketbook issues. But it has been one of the most prominent debates of the campaign. Unlike Republican candidate for governor Bob Stefanowski, France has not sought to portray himself as pro-choice. During an interview on Channel 3, he said he would have voted for Sen. Lindsey Graham’s proposal to ban abortions after 15 weeks.

France has advocated for repealing abortion rights laws in Connecticut, and is supportive of a parental notification law. A 2022 state law protects out-of-state women from prosecution for getting an abortion in Connecticut and state medical providers from legal actions taken against by other states. France was one of seven legislators in the region who voted against the bill.

In one of Courtney’s more animated moments of the campaign, he attacked France on abortion during the Garde debate, telling his challenger to, "Spare me your crocodile tears for states’ rights. The position that you have taken will capsize Connecticut’s law.”

The two major party candidates have staked out opposing positions on most issues.

Courtney has said the tax cut enacted by the Trump administration worsened income inequality and that the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act has begun the process of rebalancing income distribution. France said government has gotten in the way of providing opportunities to succeed. Both he and Blacker have railed against what they said was Connecticut’s “unfriendly” business climate.

Courtney and France differ sharply on the need for gun control, with Courtney saying he would back the reinstatement of a U.S. ban on assault weapons. France said the problem of mass shootings should be addressed through investment in mental health, and banning weapons doesn’t prevent criminals from possessing them.

Pocketbook issues

On health care, Courtney has said the Inflation Reduction Act, which lowers Medicare prescription drug costs and caps the cost of Insulin at $35 a month, is a good example of how he is working to lower health care costs.

In their first debate, France argued that government involvement in health care drives up costs. He advocated for a “free market solution,” and for patients to negotiate their care with their personal physician. He is opposed to lowering the age for Medicare eligibility because costs would balloon. Courtney countered, saying he “enthusiastically” supports lowering the age of eligibility to 55.

On student loan debt, Courtney is in favor of increased debt relief, while France believes when you take out a loan, “that investment needs to be returned.”

On energy, France has said the federal government is too focused on subsidizing the wind and solar energy industries instead of looking at other solutions. In that first debate, Courtney replied, saying, “Tax subsidies have been the mother’s milk of the oil and gas industry going back to the end of World War II.”

Herrnson believes Courtney essentially has a job for life.

“What is likely to lead to a Courtney loss? It’s more likely he’ll retire from office than get beaten,” Herrnson wrote. “That’s the way it is with most popular long-serving incumbents… That is, unless the district is drastically redrawn, he becomes severely incapacitated, or is involved in a major scandal.”

s.spinella@theday.com