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    Tuesday, May 14, 2024

    State's job recovery picture grim

    Connecticut, which has been losing jobs for the past two years, won't start recovering them any time soon, according to a new economic report released today.The quarterly report from the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis predicts that the state will continue losing jobs at least through the end of 2011, probably even longer.

    The quarterly report from the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis predicts that the state will continue losing jobs at least through the end of 2011, probably even longer. Fred Carstensen, who directs the economic analysis center at the University of Connecticut, said Tuesday that eastern Connecticut may not see job growth for another five years or more.

    Fred Carstensen, who directs the economic analysis center at the University of Connecticut, said Tuesday that eastern Connecticut may not see job growth for another five years or more."We don't have a particularly coherent economic-development strategy (in Connecticut)," Carstensen said in a phone interview. "Forty-nine states have done better (on jobs) over the last 20 years."

    "We don't have a particularly coherent economic-development strategy (in Connecticut)," Carstensen said in a phone interview. "Forty-nine states have done better (on jobs) over the last 20 years."What's more, "no jobs recovery is in sight," according to the report by senior research fellow Peter E. Gunther, with the only good news being a predicted slowdown in the pace of decline. But an accelerating employment slump forecast at the end of 2011, which is as far out as the report goes, suggests that "job losses will continue into 2012 and perhaps beyond."

    What's more, "no jobs recovery is in sight," according to the report by senior research fellow Peter E. Gunther, with the only good news being a predicted slowdown in the pace of decline. But an accelerating employment slump forecast at the end of 2011, which is as far out as the report goes, suggests that "job losses will continue into 2012 and perhaps beyond." Such a sustained period of job losses would put Connecticut on a pace to exceed the 39-month recovery time required before employment figures started trending up after the 2002-03 recession.

    Such a sustained period of job losses would put Connecticut on a pace to exceed the 39-month recovery time required before employment figures started trending up after the 2002-03 recession. Another recession in the early 1990s required a nearly two-year recovery period. Before the 1990s, Connecticut's recovery from recessions took 10 months or less, according to the report.

    Another recession in the early 1990s required a nearly two-year recovery period. Before the 1990s, Connecticut's recovery from recessions took 10 months or less, according to the report.Gunther's report said the lag in jobs recovery indicates a systemic problem related to structural changes in the state's economy and increased outsourcing of work to other states and countries.

    Gunther's report said the lag in jobs recovery indicates a systemic problem related to structural changes in the state's economy and increased outsourcing of work to other states and countries. Carstensen said Connecticut appears to be more affected by outsourcing than other states. It's a phenomenon, he said, that creates the illusion of economic growth - through greater profits for companies - even as it fails to deliver more jobs.

    Carstensen said Connecticut appears to be more affected by outsourcing than other states. It's a phenomenon, he said, that creates the illusion of economic growth - through greater profits for companies - even as it fails to deliver more jobs.The report said more than 55,000 jobs were lost statewide in the past decade, a period that included strong economic growth as well as two recessions.

    The report said more than 55,000 jobs were lost statewide in the past decade, a period that included strong economic growth as well as two recessions. "Even strong growth in (the economy in general) may not translate into rapid improvement in employment," the report said.

    "Even strong growth in (the economy in general) may not translate into rapid improvement in employment," the report said. In eastern Connecticut, said Carstensen, workers can no longer count on the continual expansion of the region's two casinos and would be better served by playing off the strengths of Pfizer Inc.'s pharmaceutical research site in Groton to attract biomedical and biotech companies.

    In eastern Connecticut, said Carstensen, workers can no longer count on the continual expansion of the region's two casinos and would be better served by playing off the strengths of Pfizer Inc.'s pharmaceutical research site in Groton to attract biomedical and biotech companies."Pfizer is a real magnet," he said.

    "Pfizer is a real magnet," he said.But Carstensen said Connecticut doesn't have a particularly aggressive approach toward attracting growing businesses. Instead, the state takes an old-fashioned, "scatter-shot" approach in going after individual companies rather than certain types of businesses that can be clustered together to take advantage of common skill sets.

    But Carstensen said Connecticut doesn't have a particularly aggressive approach toward attracting growing businesses. Instead, the state takes an old-fashioned, "scatter-shot" approach in going after individual companies rather than certain types of businesses that can be clustered together to take advantage of common skill sets. "Unless the state adopts policies and makes strategic investments to change this progressively deteriorating pattern, a jobs recovery may never arrive," Gunther said in his report. "To change this pattern, government investments must be more than countercyclical Band-Aids."

    "Unless the state adopts policies and makes strategic investments to change this progressively deteriorating pattern, a jobs recovery may never arrive," Gunther said in his report. "To change this pattern, government investments must be more than countercyclical Band-Aids."Gunther, in an interview Tuesday, said new businesses devoted to the knowledge economy and alternative-energy solutions should be promoted to generate long-term jobs growth. Among the businesses Connecticut should encourage, he said, are those related to stem-cell research, electric-car production and wind and solar power.

    Gunther, in an interview Tuesday, said new businesses devoted to the knowledge economy and alternative-energy solutions should be promoted to generate long-term jobs growth. Among the businesses Connecticut should encourage, he said, are those related to stem-cell research, electric-car production and wind and solar power.At the same time, he said, "Connecticut must pay a little attention to the firms they've (already) got." He added that the state needs to do a better job of retaining educated people with specialized skills, such as scientists laid off from Pfizer who have expertise in biotechnology.

    At the same time, he said, "Connecticut must pay a little attention to the firms they've (already) got." He added that the state needs to do a better job of retaining educated people with specialized skills, such as scientists laid off from Pfizer who have expertise in biotechnology.The report said two business sectors - the finance, insurance and real estate fields as well as manufacturing - have been the bright spots in the state's economic performance. But Gunther sees a "critical weakening" in these sectors because of a rise in outsourcing.

    The report said two business sectors - the finance, insurance and real estate fields as well as manufacturing - have been the bright spots in the state's economic performance. But Gunther sees a "critical weakening" in these sectors because of a rise in outsourcing."Neither will generate net new jobs for the state," the report said.

    "Neither will generate net new jobs for the state," the report said.A state budget crisis makes this year a difficult one in which to address Connecticut's ebbing jobs growth, Gunther noted, but something needs to be done to stem the employment tide. Carstensen took heart in the likelihood that new jobs initiatives would be tackled in the coming legislative session and would be pushed by various gubernatorial candidates.

    A state budget crisis makes this year a difficult one in which to address Connecticut's ebbing jobs growth, Gunther noted, but something needs to be done to stem the employment tide. Carstensen took heart in the likelihood that new jobs initiatives would be tackled in the coming legislative session and would be pushed by various gubernatorial candidates."At the very time that it is hardest to take the steps central to driving a fundamental structural change in the state's economy is exactly when, because of the unique characteristics of Connecticut's economy, it is most needed," Gunther said in his report.

    "At the very time that it is hardest to take the steps central to driving a fundamental structural change in the state's economy is exactly when, because of the unique characteristics of Connecticut's economy, it is most needed," Gunther said in his report.

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