Predictions of who will win an Oscar tonight
The Academy Awards will be handed out at a ceremony tonight, airing at 8 p.m. on ABC, and, yes, you can insert your own “La La Land”/”Moonlight” joke here. Let’s get to our predictions for what will happen.
BEST PICTURE
“Darkest Hour”; “Dunkirk”; “Phantom Thread”; “Get Out”; “The Post”; “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; “The Shape of Water”; “Lady Bird”; “Call Me by Your Name”
I’ll make my yearly pitch for comedies that are left out of the best picture race because they are, well, comedies — or at least heavily comic. “The Best Sick” and “I, Tonya” should be included, but, alas, no best picture nods for them. At least "Lady Bird" made the cut. “Three Billboards” has had the momentum, as it has won all the major awards leading up to this point, but will the notoriously conservative Academy Awards voters cast their ballots for such a dark, profane and violent film? And a backlash about the movie’s handling of race issues hasn’t helped “Three Billboards” in the last few weeks. I predict the shimmering, imaginative “Shape of Water” will win.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”; Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”; Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”; Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Get out your money, kids, because this is a sure bet. Gary Oldman will be victorious. And after a career full of enthralling, deeply diverse performances, Oldman deserves to finally win an Oscar. I mean, he played Sid Vicious, Ludwig van Beethoven, Count Dracula, Lee Harvey Oswald and Winston Churchill. Dude has range.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Meryl Streep, “The Post”; Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”; Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”; Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Considering how incendiary and raging Frances McDormand’s performance in “Three Billboards” was, who would dare tell her she’s NOT going to win an Oscar? She’d incinerate you! McDormand is almost as much of a lock as Oldman; she made “Three Billboards” what it is, thanks to her force-of-nature performance.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”; Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”; Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell has the inside track, although I’m one of those rare people who thought he totally overplayed his blustering, racist numskull of a small-town-cop character. I would vote for Richard Jenkins (who lives in Rhody!) for his finely calibrated turn as a closeted gay man who breaks free of his timidity when he helps his neighbor battle sinister government forces.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”; Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”; Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”; Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”; Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
This year’s race for actress in a supporting role comes down to two women playing complex, fierce mothers. (Come to think about it, that’s just what sure-to-win Frances McDormand, in the leading actress category, plays, too.) Allison Janney has been sweeping the awards coming into this big contest, but Metcalf gave the more nuanced performance. Either deserves to walk off with the award.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“The Breadwinner”; “Loving Vincent”; “Coco”; “The Boss Baby”; “Ferdinand”
“The Boss Baby”??!!!! How did that get an Oscar nomination???? “Loving Vincent” will show “Baby” exactly who’s, um, boss when the winner is announced.
DIRECTING
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”; Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”; Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”; Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”; Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
I’m so glad first-time-feature solo directors Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele were included in this distinguished group; it’s much deserved. Del Toro will probably nab the trophy, but “Dunkirk” was truly a director’s movie, and Christopher Nolan could be a spoiler.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, “Mudbound”; Michael H. Weber and Scott Neustadter, “The Disaster Artist”; James Ivory, “Call Me by Your Name”; James Mangold, Michael Green and Scott Frank, “Logan”; Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game”
The favorite: James Ivory for his subtle work on the screenplay for “Call Me by Your Name.” The 89-year-old has never won, despite three nominations for directing.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water”; Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, “The Big Sick”; Jordan Peele, “Get Out”; Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
This could be the category where voters honor “Lady Bird” or “Get Out.” We can only hope.
Comment threads are monitored for 48 hours after publication and then closed.