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    Real Estate
    Sunday, April 28, 2024

    Economic optimism pushes up home purchase sentiment in August

    While Americans had more pessimistic views on the housing market in August, they also expressed more positivity on household income and job security. Fannie Mae said this was enough to boost its Home Purchase Sentiment Index for the first time in three months.

    The index rose 1.5 points from July to stand at 88. This measure is based on six factors from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, including whether respondents think it is a good time to buy or sell a home, anticipated changes to home prices and mortgage rates, confidence about not losing a job, and changes to household income.

    "Consumers are attuned to the divergence between the slowing housing market and a strong macro economy," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Consumers were less optimistic this month about both homebuying and home selling conditions, while perceptions of income growth and confidence about job security are at survey highs. After years of robust price growth outpacing income growth, consumers face significant housing affordability challenges at the low end of the market."

    Nine out of 10 respondents said they were not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months, while 10 percent said they were worried about potential unemployment. This was a sharp reversal from July's survey, when 17 percent of respondents were worried about losing their job and 82 percent were not worried. In August 2017, 87 percent were not worried about unemployment while 13 percent were.

    The share of respondents who said their household income is significantly higher than a year ago held steady at 31 percent, a year-over-year increase of 5 percentage points. Nine percent said their household income is significantly lower, down 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year.

    While the share of respondents considering it a good market for home sellers has increased steadily in recent years, fewer people held this opinion in August. Sixty-four percent said they consider it a good time to sell, down from a survey high of 69 percent in June and 66 percent in July; however, this still marked a year-over-year increase of 2 percentage points. Twenty-six percent considered it a bad time to sell, unchanged from the previous year and up 1 percentage point from July.

    Fewer respondents expect home prices to go up in the next 12 months, with this share falling from 55 percent in June and 49 percent in July to 48 percent. This also marked a year-over-year drop of 6 percentage points. Ten percent said they think prices will go down, unchanged from July but up 4 percentage points from August 2017.

    On average, respondents said they think home prices will increase by 2.8 percent in the next 12 months. This was up from 2.3 percent in July, but down from 3.3 percent in August 2017.

    Respondents were slightly more optimistic about getting a mortgage, with 58 percent saying they thought it would be easy to do so – up 1 percentage point from the previous month and 2 percentage points from the previous year. Forty-one percent said they thought getting a mortgage would be difficult, down 1 percentage point from August 2017 but up 2 percentage points from July.

    For the third month in a row, 58 percent of respondents said they think mortgage rates will increase in the next 12 months – up 7 percentage points from August 2017. Six percent said they think rates will drop, unchanged from the previous year but up 1 percentage point from July.

    Despite lower enthusiasm toward the housing market, the majority of respondents said they would buy their next home instead of renting if they were to move. Sixty-seven percent said they would buy, up 2 percentage points from July and 1 percentage point from August 2017. Twenty-eight percent said they would rent, down 2 percentage points from the previous month and 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    Fifty-nine percent said they expect home rental prices to increase in the next 12 months, up 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year. On average, respondents said they expect rents to climb by 4.4 percent – down from 4.8 percent in July and 4.6 percent in August 2017. Five percent of respondents said they think rents will go down, up from 3 percent in the previous month and 2 percent in the previous year.

    Asked about their expectations for their personal financial situation in the next 12 months, 53 percent of respondents said they expect it to improve – up 2 percentage points from July and 6 percentage points from August 2017. Twelve percent said they think their financial situation will worsen, up 3 percentage points from July to match the share from the previous year.

    Fifty-one percent of respondents said they think the U.S. economy is on the right track, down 4 percentage points from July but up 2 percentage points from August 2017. Forty-one percent said they think the economy is on the wrong track, a year-over-year increase of 3 percentage points and up 4 percentage points from July.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, which has been issued since June 2010, is based on telephone surveys with 1,000 Americans. Respondents are asked more than 100 questions to gauge their opinions toward the housing market and economy.

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