Realtors® and home builders associations work hard year-round to ensure that issues affecting housing are either supported or defeated. Recently, Peter Gioia of PGEcon.com and former CBIA Chief Economist, addressed a small audience of Realtors®, builders and remodelers at Langley's in Waterford.

Gioia started out by stating what's good with the economy: "It has been a tremendous year nationally. If things keep going the way they have been, the best in 50 years. Consumer confidence is up, small business confidence is up. Nationally, we are adding 200,000 jobs/month; the GDP has been between 3.5 and 4 percent; the risk of recession is the lowest it's been in 25 years; and oil is at $72/barrel." He predicts that 2019 will be another good year, and possibly through 2020.

According to Gioia, three of Connecticut's top employers—Electric Boat, Pratt-Whitney, and United Technologies—are doing twice as much as 1,000 small businesses, but there are not enough people to fill the jobs. With as many as 30,000 available jobs in Connecticut, it will be a 30-year record high. Part of the problem is retirement, with aging having a negative impact on the economy.

The main challenge in Connecticut is public policy. With enormous fiscal challenges yet ahead, attitude is important. In Massachusetts, people think government is going in the right direction. The confidence level in Connecticut needs to improve to attract business.

Global threats as of this writing:

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[naviga:li]Oil needs to stay under $100/barrel to avoid a recession.[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]Pandemic flu – in one week, everyone in the world would be affected.[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]Tariffs are the biggest short-term risk, with unintended consequences. One example is the cost of building, which is causing contingency pricing in some states.[/naviga:li]

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Speaking from a historical point of view, Gioia said that raising taxes in Connecticut would kill business growth and lower property values. That said, "Connecticut has a $2 billion tax problem. To fix the fiscal crisis, the new governor will need to cut 'do-good' services that either aren't working, aren't needed, or aren't affordable."

He then listed three major areas where Connecticut needs to improve fiscally:

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[naviga:li]Homecare:  If Connecticut moved from 60 to 75 percent of medical care from hospital to home, we could save $600 million.[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]Corrections reform: Doing more to divert people from crime could save $300 million.[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]Contracting with nonprofits instead of state workers could save $1 billion.[/naviga:li]

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Building a jobs pipeline is also critical. If 20,000 skilled workers parachuted into Connecticut, including 10,000 manufacturers, they would ALL be hired. These folks would be increasing economic activity and paying more taxes. We need to do more with tech schools and colleges to produce (and keep) the workforce. More companies would want to come here if we had workers to fill the jobs.

On transportation, Gioia said first and foremost immediate short-term plans need to be put in place to improve peak traffic on I-84, I-91 and I-95. This improvement is a high-value strategic target. For the long term, tolls should be added to target passerby traffic on I-95 only.

The fiscal health of Connecticut has a direct impact on property values. The Eastern Connecticut Association of Realtors® is the Voice of Real Estate, and we encourage you to register and vote for a better Connecticut. To learn more, visit our web site at easternctrealtors.com or our blog at ECARVoice.com.