Detroit — As the Detroit Three auto companies move to restart factory operations in North America on Monday, they’re monitoring closely new reports coming from Mexico about whether auto suppliers there will be crippled by the coronavirus.

Industry analysts say what happens in the next two weeks will be crucial to Detroit.

“The U.S. car assembly plants have some inventory but not enough to last more than two weeks,” said Patrick Penfield, a supply chain management professor who teaches at Syracuse University in New York.

“The biggest issue U.S. car assembly plants face in the next two weeks is that the coronavirus infection rate is starting to surge in Mexico,” he said. “If the Mexican government changes their decision on restarting manufacturing on June 1st and continues their factory closures, U.S. car assembly plants will also shut down due to a lack of components.”

Statements from government officials in Mexico have been inconsistent, suggesting as recently as late Thursday that the industry would be shuttered until June 1. Then President Andrés Manuel López Obrador issued a directive Friday that seemed to green light Detroit automakers' plan to restart production Monday.

“It appears the Mexican Ministry of Health has clarified its guidance, and automotive manufacturing can begin again (there) before June 1 if they have approved process to meet health protocols,” said Kristin Dziczek, vice president of Industry, Labor & Economics at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor.

“This is good news, but the uncertainty weighs heavily on the auto industry as Mexico is a critical part of the U.S. automotive supply chain,” she said.

On Friday, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles said their plans to reopen auto production are unchanged. Ford declined to respond.

Still, things may be unpredictable.

“The confusion we are reading about at the vehicle manufacturer’s level is magnified as it is cascaded down the supply chain,” said Jeoff Burris, founder of Plymouth-based Advanced Purchasing Dynamics, a supply chain consultant to auto suppliers primarily in North America.

“Suppliers to the assembly plants and their suppliers are telling us that they are not getting good direction from electronic systems regarding parts that will be required and when they will be required. That the mass layoffs in the industry is making it almost impossible to connect to real people to sort out issues,” he said.

Auto companies are counting on a buffer created by inventory already in the supply chain when it shut down, and the slow ramp-up of the vehicle assembly plants.

In Mexico, as in the U.S., safety protocols are essential to reopening.

“Companies or industries engaged in activities considered essential, must present sanitary security protocols in accordance with the general guidelines established by the Secretaries of Health, Economy and Labor and Social Welfare,” said the Mexico government directive issued Friday. “The presentation, application and approval of the protocols … may take place at the same time that the preparation measures for the entry into operation of the companies are carried out.”

The memo, sent to industry officials in the U.S. early Friday, said, “If the process is concluded and approved before June 1, 2020, the corresponding company or industry may begin its operations.”

GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler have worked with the UAW to implement safety strategies in response to the pandemic and in an attempt to slow its spread.

The highly contagious virus led to a shutdown in the U.S. before Mexico, which has been strict in its shelter-in-place directive.

“Hopefully, between the parts inventory left over from before the shutdowns, and the slow rate of the initial production ramp-ups in the US in terms of low percentages of normal full production, the automakers will not run out of any Mexican parts before all suppliers in Mexico have replenished them,” said market analyst Jon Gabrielsen, who advises auto industry clients throughout North America.

A graduate of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor who was based in Atlanta for years, Gabrielsen now lives in Los Cabos, Mexico. He said he has witnessed police officers patrolling for shelter-in-place compliance. They sometimes travel in groups of five to nine police officers, armed with machine guns, in open pickup truck beds.

“As a whole, people down here complied on their own,” Gabrielsen said. “For those who did not take coronavirus seriously, and were out and about, these officers were very quick to remind them of the current restrictions and send people home. I’ve never seen them arrest anyone but no one really argues, either.”