Frustration with the ongoing state budget problems and with Gov. Dannel P. Malloy for reneging on his campaign promise not to raise taxes, combined with Democratic leadership fatigue six years into the Malloy administration, could provide Republicans with an opportunity to pick up state House and Senate seats in the 2016 election.

However, what happens at the top of the ticket could potentially blunt that opening.

In the 2014 election, despite Gov. Malloy winning re-election at the top of the ticket, Republicans picked up 10 seats in the House of Representatives, narrowing Democratic control to 87-64. On the Senate side, Republicans saw a net gain of one seat, leaving Democrats in control 21-15. Southeastern Connecticut led the charge for Republicans with the GOP picking up several seats in this area.

While it is hard to see a path for Republicans to gain outcry control of either chamber, the opportunity would seem to be there in 2016 to add to the 2014 gains.

In particular, Republicans have opportunities to challenge for state Senate seats next November. It is questionable whether state Sen. Andrew Maynard, D-18th District, will run for re-election in the district that stretches from Stonington and Groton up to Griswold and Plainfield.

Maynard has not been the same legislator since suffering a serious head injury in a fall in the summer of 2014. Since his re-election he has kept a low profile and was a non-factor in the budget debate, a distressing departure for a Democrat who in the past had been a voice for fiscal moderation. Even if he chooses to run again, Maynard could be vulnerable in a district that has swung Republican before.

Another Senate seat Republicans might make a run at is the 13th District held by Democratic state Sen. Dante Bartolomeo, serving her second term in the Middletown-Meriden area district. In the 29th District, Republicans will try to unseat Sen. Max Flexer, a freshman seantor. Flexer replaced former Senate president Donald Williams in the rural district that includes the college town of Mansfield. While these districts lean Democratic, they are not slam-dunks for the party and the incumbents are not entrenched.

Yet the election may well come down to what happens in the congressional, U.S. Senate and presidential races.

Democrats control all five U.S. House seats. While Republicans will face a tough task in winning back any of them, the quality of the candidates the party attracts to challenge Democratic incumbents could influence state House and Senate races lower on the ticket. Nominate a bunch of congressional election lightweights and disillusioned Republicans, and the unaffiliated that might otherwise lean right, might just stay home, or stick with Democratic incumbents, hurting Republican hopes across the board.

Also of concern to Republican chances next November is U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal running for re-election for the first time since his election to the Senate in 2010. While faultfinders, including me, might criticize Blumenthal for being an attorney general/senator — continuing a brand of consumer advocacy that borders on being anti-business — the reality is that his high profile approach has made him the state’s most popular politician. Blumenthal is likely to win big again, with coattails that help his party across the ballot.

Nothing, however, may damage state Republican chances more than who the national party nominates to run for president. If Republicans are foolish enough to nominate either Donald Trump or the hard-right Sen. Ted Cruz, the Democratic candidate, likely Hillary Clinton, will win the state’s cities overwhelmingly and limit damage in traditional Republican strongholds.

Nominating a presidential candidate who is unacceptable to many Connecticut Republicans could devastate the party’s chances of building on the progress seen in 2014. And who knows when that opportunity will arise again?

Paul Choiniere is the editorial page editor.

Twitter: @Paul_Choiniere

p.choiniere@theday.com