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    Monday, May 13, 2024

    Decline in oil prices could affect Northeast home values

    Cheaper oil prices could grace homeowners in some parts of the country with higher home values, including in the Northeast.

    Jed Kolko, chief economist for the real estate site Trulia, says the effect of oil on the market depends on how much a region relies on the oil and gas industry for employment. In areas where the industry is prevalent, a drop in oil prices can lead to a corresponding drop in home values. In other areas, the opposite holds true.

    The Northeast and Midwest stand to benefit the most from sliding oil prices. Kolko says this effect is caused by a boost to the economy in these regions during periods when oil prices are low, since it does not cost as much to heat a house, drive a car, or otherwise spend money on oil products.

    However, another analysis says the drop in oil prices has led to an overall slowdown in home price increases in the nation. Ruth Mantell, writing for MarketWatch, says a study by the analysis firm CoreLogic found that home prices were up 0.1 percent in November. This increased the year-over-year growth pace to 5.5 percent.

    CoreLogic notes that three of the four states with the highest home price appreciation are located in areas that have benefited from the recent energy boom, such as Texas and North Dakota. It says these states may experience some downward pressure on home prices in 2015.

    Kolko says the year-over-year change in the asking price for a home was higher in the metro areas where the oil and gas industry accounted for at least 2 percent of the local jobs. He says the seven largest metros in these regions had an average year-over-year increase in asking prices of 10.5 percent in December, compared to an average of 7.7 percent in the 100 metro areas included in the overall analysis.

    Kolko's analysis concluded that year-over-year asking prices increased in 97 of these areas, but that this growth has slowed and is not as strong as the increases seen in 2013. Asking prices rose 9.5 percent in December 2013, and the month-over-month increase in December 2014 was down to 0.5 percent after larger gains in the three prior months.

    This overall slowdown in price growth is due in part to an increasing inventory, as Mantell says more people have listed their homes for sale since the end of 2013. She says annual price growth has not hit 10 percent or higher since March of 2014.

    The effect from declining oil prices is unlikely to be fully apparent for some time. Trey Garrison, writing for Housing Wire, says cheaper oil will start to affect employment in oil-producing regions when long-term extraction costs begin to exceed the cost per barrel. Consequently, the drop in production and employment leads to a negative effect on the housing market.

    Garrison says this effect on housing prices in oil-producing regions might not be seen unless the lower prices continue for a year or more. Kolko says that after a major drop of oil prices in 1986, the effect on employment occurred two quarters later and the effect on housing prices occurred two years later. As such, he says the falling oil prices might not have an effect on home prices in oil-producing regions until later this year or in 2016.

    In areas with fewer oil and gas jobs, the main benefit of the falling oil prices is an increase in household income. In addition, Garrison says the trend might spur a decrease in mortgage rates to make homeownership affordable to more people.

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