North Stonington — Residents on both sides of the school building project framed the vote on the comprehensive school building project as a make-or-break decision at last week's town meeting.

As the vote loomed Monday, Board of Education Chairman Robert Carlson said in a call with The Day's editorial staff that a fourth vote is unlikely to come soon if Monday's referendum fails.

The town "is just getting tired of having to deal with this situation ... I don't anticipate, if this doesn't pass, of putting together another plan soon," he said.

First Selectman Shawn Murphy, Superintendent of Schools Peter Nero and Carlson spoke with editorial page editor Paul Choiniere on Wednesday, and said difficult decisions lie ahead if the long-proposed school building project does not pass. They framed the renovation as the best option for the town.

The project, as it will be presented to the voters on Monday, involves demolishing the middle school, renovating the existing elementary school, adding a new combined middle and high school wing onto the town's gymatorium, separating the multipurpose room and cafeteria at the elementary school, providing updated science labs and ending regular use of the tunnel under Norwich-Westerly Road.

The total cost is $38 million, of which the town will be responsible for between $21.6 million and $23.4 million, depending on whether it can obtain a waiver from the state for square footage requirements linked to enrollment that affect reimbursement.

Voters in 2014 rejected two proposed projects that would have cost more.

The cost has been the focus of many who attended the town meeting.

During that meeting, members of the Ad Hoc School Building Committee and school administration sparred with some Board of Finance members over a document they prepared to calculate the proposed tax impact of the project.

The Board of Finance has since revised those numbers to reflect savings in next year's budget, as well as possible financing and state reimbursement savings.

The finance board estimates the mill rate impact to be 2.79 mills if the space standards waiver is granted and the town can fund the project through the Department of Agriculture's Rural Development program, which offers a low fixed interest rate, currently at 2.875 percent.

Johan Strandson, area director of the USDA Rural Development office in Norwich, said in an interview that USDA funding for the project would be "very likely."

The "alternative" scenario the Board of Finance included, with no waiver of space standards and conventional bonding, means the mill rate increase would be 3.34 mills.

The increase in the mill rate has been the focus for residents who criticized the project, such as Brian Rathbun, who said at the town meeting that "each and every one of us has to look at our pockets and see if we can afford it."

Both First Selectman Murphy and Selectman Nick Mullane have emerged as strong public supporters of the project.

Mullane, who was the first selectman during the previous two referendums, said at the town meeting that this project is built upon the work of previous committees and is "good for the town."

Town officials expressed skepticism about the benefits of a feasibility study drafted by Stonington school officials to take Wheeler High School students as tuition students.

A draft of that study used an incorrect per-pupil cost at Wheeler High to estimate savings. Per-pupil costs at both schools are similar.

While the study was later withdrawn by Stonington school officials, some residents at the town meeting expressed interest in regionalization.

Murphy noted that, even in a scenario where high school students were sent out of the district, an expensive building project still would need to be done.

"(You'd) still have the renovations to the gym and cafeteria, the common spaces would all still be needed, and all you would still need to be doing is reducing a number of classrooms," Murphy said. "The costs of doing it would be two-thirds of the cost of doing this."

Superintendent Nero repeatedly has expressed concern about tuition hikes that could occur if students are sent to Stonington High.

"You play poker when you close the school, and you're never able to deal the cards out again," he said. 

He added that it leaves students "with limited opportunities to participate in sports, long commutes and the loss of the personal attention they receive at a small school."

Declining enrollment also has been a subject of discussion.

Mike Urgo of the Ad Hoc School Building Committee said the most recent enrollment numbers were used to calculate the reimbursement rate and led to the town's decision to apply for a space standards waiver.

The state predicts that the school-age population of North Stonington will drop by 30 percent over the next 10 years.

However, actual enrollment in the school shows a smaller decline, according to predictions by the New England School Development Council.

Murphy centered the school building project within the town's efforts to attract economic development and new families.

If the town closes its high school, he said, "we will lose any ability to attract any new families any new businesses that want to relocate ... nobody wants to come to a town that doesn't have a high school."

n.lynch@theday.com