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    Real Estate
    Tuesday, April 30, 2024

    More reticence about housing, personal finances in latest Fannie Mae survey

    Although the people polled in Fannie Mae's most recent housing survey said they expect home prices to increase in the next year, the share of those who consider it a good time to buy or sell fell considerably. More respondents also expressed concerns with the economy and their own personal financial situation.

    The average respondent in the monthly survey in July said they believe home prices will increase by 3 percent in the next 12 months. This estimate marked a 0.4 percent increase from June and a 0.7 percent increase from July of 2014.

    However, the share of respondents who consider it a good time to buy a home fell to 61 percent, its lowest point since Fannie Mae began the survey in June of 2010. This share was 2 percent lower than in June and a 6 percent drop from a year ago.

    Fewer people were likely to consider it a good time to sell as well. Forty-five percent said they thought it would be a good time to put their home on the market, down 7 percent from the previous month. However, this share was also a 2 percent increase from July of 2014.

    "Deteriorating consumer assessments of income growth over the past year as well as increased caution around the direction of the economy and personal financial expectations may be contributing to the pullback in sentiment," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Still, it is premature to read too much into this month's results as the survey was taken around the time of increased global turmoil, including Greece's potential default and China's stock market plunge, which has receded somewhat. Most of our key indicators are as strong or stronger than they were at this time last year, which is indicative of an improving housing market this year."

    The share of respondents who believe home prices and mortgage rates will increase in the near future has been climbing steadily in recent months. Forty-nine percent said they think home prices will go up in the next 12 months, up 2 percent from June and 7 percent from a year ago. Thirty-seven percent expect prices to remain the same, a 1 percent decrease from the previous month and 8 percent decrease from the previous year. Only 8 percent said they believe home prices will go down, the same share as July of 2014 but 1 percent higher than June's survey.

    Fifty-one percent expect mortgage rates to increase in the next year, 3 percent less than a year ago but 1 percent more than in June. Those who think rates will stay the same fell from 39 percent in July of 2014 and 37 percent in June to 35 percent in July. Five percent expect rates to fall, up 1 percent from the previous month and year.

    Slightly more people thought it would be difficult to get a mortgage than easy, the first time this split has occurred since October. Forty-nine percent said they thought it would be difficult to get a mortgage, an increase of 3 percent from June but a decrease of 1 percent from a year ago. Forty-eight percent said they think it would be easy to get a mortgage, a 1 percent increase from July of 2014 but a 2 percent decrease from June.

    Despite the more pessimistic attitudes on the housing market, respondents continued to prefer buying a home to renting one. Sixty-five percent said they would buy a home rather than rent if they were to move, 1 percent more than a month ago but 2 percent lower than in July of 2014. Twenty-eight percent said they would rent, up 1 percent from a year ago but down 2 percent from June.

    The average respondent expected the rental price for a home to increase by 4.5 percent in the next 12 months. This estimate marked a 0.3 percent increase from June and a 0.7 percent increase from July of 2014.

    However, the share of respondents expecting home rental prices to go up in the next year fell from 59 percent in June to 54 percent in July; this share was still 3 percent higher than a year ago. Thirty-seven percent believe home rental prices will stay the same, 5 percent lower than July of 2014 but 3 percent more than in June. Those expecting home rental prices to decrease held steady at 3 percent.

    After reaching a low point of 45 percent in February, the share of people who believe the economy is on the wrong track has been increasing steadily. Fifty-four percent held this opinion in July, up 3 percent from June but 5 percent less than in July of 2014. Thirty-seven percent said they think the economy is on the right track, 2 percent more than a year ago but 2 percent less than in June.

    The share of people expecting their personal financial situation to improve in the next 12 months fell from 47 percent in June to 44 percent in July, though this was 4 percent higher than in July of 2014. Forty-two percent expect their situation to stay the same, unchanged from June but 1 percent less than a year ago. Twelve percent believe their personal financial situation will worsen, up 2 percent from the previous month but down 3 percent from the previous year.

    Fifty-seven percent said their household income has remained relatively unchanged in the past year, down 3 percent from June and 1 percent from July of 2014. Twenty-seven percent said this income has improved, the same as the previous month but 1 percent less than the previous year. The share of people who said their income has worsened increased for the first time since April, going from 12 percent to 15 percent.

    Fifty-six percent said their household expenses have not changed significantly in the past year, down 1 percent from June but up 4 percent from a year ago. Thirty-one percent said their expenses are significantly higher, the same as the past two monthly surveys but down 5 percent from July of 2014. Eleven percent said their expenses have gone down, a 1 percent increase from the previous month and year.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey is issued each month to 1,000 Americans through telephone interviews. Each person is asked 100 questions to gauge their attitude on topics such as the housing market, homeownership distress, the economy, and overall consumer confidence.

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